© 2016 Nor Azura Husin, Norwati Mustapha, Md. Nasir Sulaiman, Razali Yaacob, Hazlina Hamdan and Masnida Hussin.
This open access article is distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution (CC-BY) 3.0 license.
Journal of Computer Sciences
Original Research Paper
Performance of Hybrid GANN in Comparison with Other
Standalone Models on Dengue Outbreak Prediction
Nor Azura Husin, Norwati Mustapha, Md. Nasir Sulaiman,
Razali Yaacob, Hazlina Hamdan and Masnida Hussin
Department of Computer Science, Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology,
University Putra Malaysia, Selangor, Malaysia
Article history
Received: 24-06-2015
Revised: 23-06-2016
Accepted: 01-07-2016
Corresponding Author:
Nor Azura Husin
Department of Computer
Science, Faculty of Computer
Science and Information
Technology, University Putra
Malaysia, Selangor, Malaysia
Email: support@thescipub.com
Abstract: Early prediction of diseases especially dengue fever in the case
of Malaysia, is very crucial to enable health authorities to develop
response strategies and context preventive intervention programs such as
awareness campaigns for the high risk population before an outbreak
occurs. Some of the deficiencies in dengue epidemiology are insufficient
awareness on the parameter as well as the combination among them. Most
of the studies on dengue prediction use standalone models which face
problem of finding the appropriate parameter since they need to apply try
and error approach. The aim of this paper is to conduct experiments for
determining the best network structure that has effective variable and
fitting parameters in predicting the spread of the dengue outbreak. Four
model structures were designed in order to attain optimum prediction
performance. The best model structure was selected as predicting model to
solve the time series prediction of dengue. The result showed that
neighboring location of dengue cases was very effective in predicting the
dengue outbreak and it is proven that the hybrid Genetic Algorithm and
Neural Network (GANN) model significantly outperforms standalone
models namely regression and Neural Network (NN).
Keywords: Hybrid GANN, Genetic, Neural Network, Predicting
Introduction
Dengue is a tropical mosquito-borne disease affecting
more than 100 countries worldwide. Current estimate by
WHO put the number of cases at 50-100 million cases
per-year while the most recent estimate by a
multinational study just published in the Lancet,
tripled the WHO estimate at 360 million cases per
year with 40% of the world population at risk (MOH,
2013). This disease may become the most important
global health problem in the next decade which can no
longer be ignored. This is further aggravated by
environmental parameters like global warming, rapid
urbanization and international traveling, which are
recognized as contributing parameters to the spread of
dengue outbreak (MOH, 2013). Dengue disease turns out
to be the highest communicable disease compared to
other prominent diseases like malaria, HFMD, typhus
and yellow fever (MOH, 2012).
In Malaysia, dengue cases were categorized as a
notifiable disease in 1971. Since then, it continues to
persist in predominantly urban and semi urban areas
throughout the country. Approximately 70-80% of
dengue cases are reported in areas where there is a high
population density and rapid development activities
which contribute to dengue transmission (Mahiran and
Ho, 2011). Rapid urbanization has brought about
enormous infrastructural build-up indirectly producing
breeding areas for mosquito. Consequently, population
growth and climate also considered as main parameters
that contribute to the spike in dengue cases outbreak
(Muhuiddin and Jamie, 2015).
Previous research already shows that the accuracy of
prediction model can be better over standalone model if
we combine several different models. The hybrid models
are proved in order to search the suitable parameter and
make it model more robust with regard to the possible
structure change in the data. Although combining or
hybrid model prove to be alternative on solving the
previous problem, there is not many existing prediction
model using hybrid model especially prediction on
dengue outbreak. Therefore, this study propose that the