Ecological Modelling 190 (2006) 147–158 Analysis and nonlinear modeling of the mound-building ant Formica lugubris spatial multi-scale dynamic in a larch-tree stand of the southern French Alps G´ erard Boudjema a,∗ , Guy Lemp´ eri` ere b , Magali Deschamps-Cottin c , David George Molland b a Projet IS2/MISTIS, INRIA-Rhone-Alpes 655, av. de l’Europe, 38334 Montbonnot, France b Laboratoire de Biologie des Populations d’Altitude, UMR CNRS 5553, Universit´ e Joseph Fourier, BP53-F 38041 Grenoble Cedex 09, France c Laboratoire de Syst´ ematique Evolutive, UPRES Biodiversit´ e, Universit´ e de Provence, 13331 Marseille Cedex 03, France Received 2 March 2004; received in revised form 22 February 2005; accepted 28 March 2005 Available online 15 June 2005 Abstract Determinism in the evolution of a mound-building ant Formica lugubris (Hymenoptera:Formicidae) colony and the impact of environmental perturbations were analyzed using several methods. Variation in dome volume of ant-hills and their activity were followed in a larch forest of the southern French Alps for 8 consecutive years. The dynamic of domes was graphically visualized, and the deterministic component of variations was assessed using linear and nonlinear models (neural networks) in the context of auto-regressive and spatial multi-scale dependences hypothesis. An analysis of residuals was carried out (errors from the best global model) and nonpredictable data were located in perturbed areas (forest clearings and wind-throws). The dynamic of ant colony in the stand was simulated constructing a web of interacting neural net models. Evolution of virtual ant-hills was in accordance with real observed dynamic. The study revealed a very active dynamical system resulting from ants self-organizing in dome construction and confirmed that silvicultural practices can have a negative impact on ant colonies. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Keywords: Ants; Formica; Larch-tree; Multi-scale spatial dynamic; Neural network; Coupled map lattice 1. Introduction The genus Formica (Hymenoptera:Formicidae) has an holarctic distribution and includes a large number ∗ Corresponding author. E-mail address: gboudjem@yahoo.fr (G. Boudjema). of polygynous and omnivorous species (H¨ olldobler and Wilson, 1990). If the genus Formica is commonly associated with cold and wet areas, the more specific Formica rufa group of species is associated with forest mountain ecosystems (Della Santa, 1995). According to the most recent taxonomic revisions (Betrem, 1960; Kutter, 1977), the eight species that make up the 0304-3800/$ – see front matter © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.03.021