Journal of Natural Sciences Research www.iiste.org ISSN 2224-3186 (Paper) ISSN 2225-0921 (Online) Vol.3, No.8, 2013 179 Perceived and Actual Rainfall Trends and Variability in Eastern Uganda: Implications for Community Preparedness and Response Monica K. Kansiime 1* , Stephen K. Wambugu 1 and Chris A. Shisanya 2 1 School of Agriculture and Enterprise Development, Department of Agribusiness Management and Trade, Kenyatta University, P.O Box 43844 - 00100, Nairobi, Kenya 2 School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Department of Geography, Kenyatta University, P. O. Box 43844- 00100, Nairobi, Kenya *Email of the corresponding author: monkansiime@yahoo.co.uk Abstract This study assessed the extent of rainfall trends and variability in Eastern Uganda and implications for community preparedness and response. Regional and national climate studies have been generalized over large scales and thus are insufficient in capturing variability at local level where management actions occur. This study used both observational rainfall data for the period 1971 to 2010 and primary data on communities’ perceptions of changes in rainfall. The study was conducted in three distinct agro-ecologies covering highland, low land and floodplains. Trends analysis was done using Regression method, while Coefficient of Variation and ANOVA techniques were used to analyze variability. Rainfall satisfaction index was used to assess farmers’ perceptions. The results show statistically significant increasing trends (P ≤ 0.05) in annual and seasonal rainfall for highland areas, and negative, but non-significant trends for low lying areas. Analysis of Variance shows significant within and between season variations for L. Victoria and less significant variations for Mt. Elgon and SE L. Kyoga agro-ecologies. However, Mt. Elgon exhibits a very high coefficient of variation for ASON (CV > 30%), indicating high rainfall variability. Over 90% of the interviewed farming communities perceived change in rainfall pattern, dating as far back as 10 to 15 years. The rainfall subjective index of 0.19 was obtained, which indicates that the rainfall situation for the base year of this study was undesirable. Adaptation to the observed variability may include; development of early warning systems based on a combination of meteorological data and communities’ knowledge, adoption of crops adapted to water logging or stress conditions for the different seasons and agro-ecologies, and local institutional preparedness to anticipate and manage the climate variability induced risks. Key words: Rainfall Variability, Rainfall Trends, Farmers’ Perceptions, Eastern Uganda. 1. Introduction Evidence is emerging that climate change is increasing rainfall variability and the frequency of extreme events such as drought, floods, and hurricanes (IPCC, 2007). Boko et al. (2007) predict that Africa is likely to warm across all seasons during this century with annual mean surface air temperatures expected to increase between 3°C and 4°C by 2099, roughly 1.5 times average global temperatures. Projections in East Africa suggest that increasing temperatures due to climate change will increase rainfall by 5 - 20% from December to February, and decrease rainfall by 5-10% from June to August by 2050 (Hulme et al., 2001; IPCC, 2007). Analyses from General Circulation Models (GCM’s) indicate an upward trend in rainfall under global warming over much of Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, southern Somali and Uganda (Schreck & Semazzi, 2004; van de Steeg et al., 2009). Studies conducted in Uganda indicate a general lack of scientific consensus on the trend and distribution of annual and seasonal rainfall. McSweeney et al. (2008) report an annual rainfall decrease of 3.5% since the 1960s, with annual rainfall due to decline further. McSweeney et al. (2008) further suggest that rains during the March to May rainy season are falling by 4.7% per decade. However, Government of Uganda (GOU 2007) indicates that the wetter areas of Uganda, around the Lake Victoria basin and the east and northwest are tending to become wetter, indicating an increase in rainfall in these areas. Temperature and rainfall simulations by Goulden (2008) indicate high percentage increases in rainfall for historically dry seasons for many parts of Uganda. In their study of localized precipitation around Kibale National Park in mid Western Uganda, Stampone