Vol.:(0123456789) Natural Hazards (2020) 102:557–574 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-019-03756-4 1 3 ORIGINAL PAPER Inter‑comparison of model, satellite and in situ tropical cyclone heat potential in the North Indian Ocean Babita Jangir 1  · D. Swain 1  · Samar Kumar Ghose 1  · Rishav Goyal 1  · T. V. S. Udaya Bhaskar 2 Received: 19 April 2018 / Accepted: 14 August 2019 / Published online: 22 August 2019 © Springer Nature B.V. 2019 Abstract The North Indian Ocean (NIO) experiences frequent tropical cyclones (TCs). TC heat potential (TCHP) is a major ocean parameter responsible for TC genesis and intensifca- tion changes. In this study, Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services-Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (INCOIS-GODAS) model and satellite-derived TCHP data from National Remote Sensing Centre (NRSC) and National Oceanic and Atmos- pheric Administration (NOAA) are validated against TCHP from in situ profles in the NIO during the period 2011–2013 for buoys and during 2005–2015 for Argo data. Data from eight moored buoys (6 in Bay of Bengal and 2 in Arabian Sea) under the Ocean Moored Buoy Network are used. Comparison of model and in situ TCHP yields correlation coef- cients (root-mean-square errors in kJ/cm 2 ) of 0.74 (17.75), 0.59 (15.34), 0.70 (17.68), 0.60 (22.24), 0.57 (19.52), 0.73 (17.88) and 0.77 (39.17) at buoy locations BD08, BD09, BD10, BD11, BD13, AD06 and AD10. The scatter indices between collocated TCHP values at these locations were 0.32, 0.22, 0.30, 0.30, 0.31, 0.58 and 0.41. Further, it was found that satellite-based TCHP from NRSC match better with in situ as compared to near-real-time TCHP data obtained from NOAA. TCHP from INCOIS-GODAS model, NOAA delayed time data and NRSC TCHP data set are also in good agreement with those from Argo profles. As a case study, model and in situ TCHP were compared during a TC, “Thane” at two buoy locations (BD11 and BD13), closest to its track. The analysis revealed underes- timation of model TCHP at BD11, but good correlation at BD13. This could be attributed to the existence of a strong temperature inversion at BD11. It is observed that although the model is able to capture features like barrier and inversion layers, the temperature and depth of such layers are underestimated. Further, the recovery time from the infuence of TC on the ocean subsurface is also much longer in case of the model which thus needs to be fne-tuned. Seasonal comparison of TCHP from various sources with in situ estimated TCHP also shows better correlation between all the products for the pre-summer monsoon compared to the post-summer monsoon season. Keywords Tropical cyclone heat potential · OMNI buoy · Tropical cyclone · Cyclone Thane * Babita Jangir bj11@iitbbs.ac.in Extended author information available on the last page of the article