Using a Bayesian approach to improve and calibrate a dynamic model of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons degradation in an industrial contaminated soil * Khaled Brimo a, b, c, d , Patricia Garnier a , Siao Sun e , Jean-Luc Bertrand-Krajewski f , Aur  elie C  ebron g, h , St  ephanie Ouvrard b, c, * a INRA, EcoSys, UMR1405, Universit e Paris-Saclay, 78850, Thiverval-Grignon, France b INRA, Laboratoire Sols et Environnement, UMR 1120, F-54518, Vandoeuvre-l es-Nancy, France c Universit e de Lorraine, Laboratoire Sols et Environnement, UMR 1120, F-54518, Vandoeuvre-l es-Nancy, France d Agence de l'Environnement et de la Maîtrise de l'Energie, 20 avenue du Gr esill e, BP 90406, F-49004, Angers Cedex 01, France e Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resource Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100101, Beijing, China f Universit e de Lyon, INSA Lyon, DEEP, F-69621, Villeurbanne Cedex, France g CNRS, LIEC, UMR 7360, Facult e des Sciences et Technologies, BP 70239, F-54506, Vandoeuvre-l es-Nancy Cedex, France h Universit e de Lorraine, LIEC, UMR 7360, Facult e des Sciences et Technologies, BP 70239, F-54506, Vandoeuvre-l es-Nancy Cedex, France article info Article history: Received 24 February 2016 Received in revised form 26 April 2016 Accepted 28 April 2016 Available online 11 May 2016 Keywords: DREAM PAH reactivity Biodegradation pathways Global sensitivity analysis abstract A novel kinetics model that describes the dynamics of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in contaminated soils is presented. The model includes two typical biodegradation pathways: the co- metabolic pathway using pseudo first order kinetics and the specific biodegradation pathway modeled using Monod kinetics. The sorption of PAHs to the solid soil occurs through bi-phasic fist order kinetics, and two types of non-extractible bounded residues are considered: the biogenic and the physically se- questrated into soil matrix. The PAH model was developed in Matlab, parameterized and tested suc- cessfully on batch experimental data using a Bayesian approach (DREAM). Preliminary results led to significant model simplifications. They also highlighted that the specific biodegradation pathway was the most efficient at explaining experimental data, as would be expected for an old industrial contaminated soil. Global analysis of sensitivity showed that the amount of PAHs ultimately degraded was mostly governed by physicochemical interactions rather than by biological activity. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction The wide exploitation and use of fossil energy and its by- products have caused the dispersion of original and transformed fossil organic compounds in the environment. These pollutants accumulate in soils causing acute or more diffuse contamination. Among them, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) pose a serious threat to the human health and the environment owing to their carcinogenicity, bioaccumulation and persistence (Iarc, 2010). Their general behavior and impact on all environmental compartments, e.g. transfer from soil to water resources or into the food chain, need to be addressed in the general context of contaminated soil risk assessment and safe land-reuse. Thus, models predicting the dissipation rate of PAHs over a wide range of environmental conditions with sufficient accuracy are necessary for environmental risk assessment and decision support. Models dedicated to the description and prediction of organic pollutants behavior in soils remain scarce. Most existing tools have been developed and applied for pesticides in the context of culti- vated lands (Beulke et al., 2000; K€ ohne et al., 2009). Only very few models deal with other organic pollutants such as PAHs (Geng et al., 2015) or pharmaceutical products (Moenickes et al., 2011; Zarfl et al., 2009). These models display a great variety of assumptions and mathematical formalisms and for most of them they have not been validated or tested in the field (except those developed for * This paper has been recommended for acceptance by Klaus Kummerer. * Corresponding author. Universit e de Lorraine, Laboratoire Sols et Environne- ment, UMR 1120, TSA 40602, F-54518, Vandoeuvre-l es-Nancy, France. E-mail address: stephanie.ouvrard@univ-lorraine.fr (S. Ouvrard). Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Environmental Pollution journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/envpol http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2016.04.094 0269-7491/© 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Environmental Pollution 215 (2016) 27e37