The Polls: Searching for Determinism: A Comparative Assessment of First Term Approval Volatility, Buoyancy, and Polarization JOSHUA G. BEHR Old Dominion University This research examines evidence of deterministic patterns in first term presidential approval scores, Eisenhower through Clinton. Rather than relying on single-presidency trend lines, approval is evaluated along the dimensions of volatility, buoyancy, and polarization. Borrowing from both the cumulative decision and psychological response explanations for approval paths, posited is an agenda articulation approach, which reasons presidential approval reflects the president’s ability to define an agenda by staking positions on salient issues early in the administration. The findings report deterministic patterns in approval volatility and buoyancy. Data are from a unique compilation of presidential approval scores drawn from seven polling organizations allowing for a two-week unit of analysis. The search for a recurring trend in presidents’ approvals has received much atten- tion by presidency scholars—and for good reason. The identification of a deterministic seasonal pattern in approval has implications for the debate between the presidency- and president-centered approaches. Evidence of an approval trend would appear to lend support to the idea of a president constrained by the institution, whereas an absence of pattern may suggest that approval is purely an ad-hoc reflection of the predilections of the individual. There are two theory-driven expectations for approval trends, both plot either an increase or decrease in presidential approval relative to an earlier time in an adminis- tration. The first, the cumulative decision explanation, argues that a president’s broad coalition of support, built while campaigning, will steadily erode in response to the accumulation of decisions that must necessarily follow an election. Many of these deci- sions may not fully resonate with coalition members’ preferences, the consequence being a predictable, steady decline in approval. The second, the psychological response expla- nation, argues that presidents come to office with inflated approval due to unrealistic Presidential Studies Quarterly 33, no. 3 (September) © 2003 Center for the Study of the Presidency 649 Joshua G. Behr is Professor of Political Science at Old Dominion University. His most recent work includes Race, Ethnicity, and the Politics of City Redistricting published by the State University of New York Press, 2004.