TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE 22,31-52 (1982) SIAM: Strategic Impact and Assumptions-Identification Method for Project, Program, and Policy Planning* GEORGE ABONYI ABSTRACT This paper presents a method, called SIAM, for assessing the “social soundness” of projects, programs, and policies (with emphasis here on the first two). It is based on work by R. 0. Mason. I. I. Mitroff, and J. R. Emshoff. SIAM was applied initially as one part of a computer-assisted framework for the socioeconomic assessment of highway infrastructure plans. It has since proven useful in a wide range of projects and programs. A development project at the planning stage is a future scenario. Its final form and impact will be conditioned not only by its structural and economic characteristics. but also by the characteristics of the environment in which it is embedded. It is vital therefore to assess not only a project’s technical and economic viability, but also its strategic viability involving sociopolitical considerations. A project embodies certain expectations about the present and future behavior of a variety of interests. These assumptions are implicit in the technical design and projected impacts, including the estimated benefits. The success of the project hinges on the validity and stability of these assumptions. SIAM provides a procedure for the comprehensive identification of relevant stakeholders. stakeholder-project linkages, and for identifying the critical assumptions implicit in the technical design of the project and in its economic assessment. Introduction OVERVIEW This paper presents a method for assessing the “social soundness” of projects, programs, and policies.’ The technique, called the Strategic Impact and Assumptions- Identification Method (SIAM) was applied initially as one part of a computer-assisted framework for the socioeconomic assessment of highway infrastructure plans [3]. It is, however, appropriate to a wide spectrum of applications.’ In general, SIAM assists in ‘Although the logic of SIAM is equally applicable to project, program or policy planning. only the term “project” will be used in this paper. SIAM is based on work by Mason and Mitroff 1161 and Mitroff and Emshoff [18] *Part of this work was developed for, and with the assistance of, the Project Assessment and Evaluation Branch, Department of Regional Economic Expansion, Government of Canada. Special thanks to Mr. Bemd Zechel, then project manager. and thanks to Mr. Dick Bugatsch. both of whom played key roles in the development and application of the ideas in this paper. GEORGE ABONYI is the Coordinator of the Management and Policy Group. Faculty of Administration, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada. 0 1982 by Elsevier Science Publishing Co., Inc. 0040-16251821050031-22 $2.75