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doi:10.1017/S1049096517002505 © American Political Science Association, 2018 PS • April 2018 351
Politics
Primary Distrust: Political Distrust and
Support for the Insurgent Candidacies of
Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders in the
2016 Primary
Joshua J. Dyck, University of Massachusetts Lowell
Shanna Pearson-Merkowitz, University of Rhode Island
Michael Coates, University of Maryland
ABSTRACT
Donald Trump dominated the 2016 Republican primary despite the fact that he
was not, in any meaningful sense, a Republican. Bernie Sanders came just shy of winning
the Democratic nomination despite the fact that he switched his party affiliation from
Independent to Democrat only three months before the election. Why did two candidates
with no formal ties to the political parties fare so well? One possibility is that primary vot-
ers are more ideologically extreme and that ideology drives support for these candidates.
However, another possibility is that concerns about government process drives support
for insurgent candidates. We test the proposition that distrust was the primary motivator
of primary voting for these two insurgent candidates using two datasets: a poll of New
Hampshire voters fielded a week before their primary and a national poll taken in June
2016. Results confirm the hypothesis that distrust drove intraparty vote choice in the 2016
presidential primaries.
G
eneral elections can be predicted well in advance
because most people decide how to vote using a com-
bination of partisan attachment—typically acquired
early in life—and reflection on the “nature of the times”
(Campbell et al. 1960). As Achen and Bartels (2016,
267) argued, “The primary sources of partisan loyalties and voting
behavior…are social identities, group attachments and myopic retro-
spections, not policy preferences or ideological principles.” However,
in congressional and presidential primaries, this process works
differently. Voters choose between two or more candidates who
all bear the same partisan label. Making distinctions among the
minutia of policies in which these candidates disagree can be
difficult, even for the most sophisticated voter. Most primary
voters, therefore, must figure out who to support without the
shortcuts provided by the partisan brand (Zaller 1992). Thus, an
“insurgent” candidate occasionally comes along and unseats
a well-known and possibly well-loved incumbent or the party’s
presumptive nominee.
In the 2016 election, the United States experienced insurgent
candidacies in both party primaries from Donald Trump and
Bernie Sanders. In other countries that have multiparty systems,
both might have run under a different party label. However, in
the United States, third parties face barriers to running for public
office, particularly the presidency. Because the primaries are open
to a public vote, would-be third-party candidates can run strategi-
cally under major party labels.
We consider Trump and Sanders as insurgent candidates
because they were (1) only nominal members of the parties with
which they ran but, more important, because (2) their candidacies
were not welcomed by the party establishment. Sanders has held
elective office since 1991 as an Independent. Although he has
caucused with Democrats, he has always made clear to both his
home state and the national media that he is not a member of the
Joshua J. Dyck is associate professor in political science at the University of
Massachusetts Lowell. He can be reached at joshua_dyck@uml.edu.
Shanna Pearson-Merkowitz is associate professor in political science at the University
of Rhode Island. She can be reached at shanna_pearson@uri.edu.
Michael Coates is a doctoral candidate in government and politics at the University of
Maryland, College Park. He can be reached at azhain@umd.edu.