Research Article
Daily Crude Oil Price Forecasting Using Hybridizing Wavelet
and Artificial Neural Network Model
Ani Shabri
1
and Ruhaidah Samsudin
2
1
Department of Science Mathematic, Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Skudai, Johor, Malaysia
2
Department of Sofware Engineering, Faculty of Computing, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), 81310 Skudai, Johor, Malaysia
Correspondence should be addressed to Ani Shabri; ani sabri@hotmail.com
Received 24 January 2014; Revised 2 July 2014; Accepted 2 July 2014; Published 16 July 2014
Academic Editor: Marek Lefk
Copyright © 2014 A. Shabri and R. Samsudin. Tis is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution
License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly
cited.
A new method based on integrating discrete wavelet transform and artifcial neural networks (WANN) model for daily crude
oil price forecasting is proposed. Te discrete Mallat wavelet transform is used to decompose the crude price series into one
approximation series and some details series (DS). Te new series obtained by adding the efective one approximation series and
DS component is then used as input into the ANN model to forecast crude oil price. Te relative performance of WANN model
was compared to regular ANN model for crude oil forecasting at lead times of 1 day for two main crude oil price series, West Texas
Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil spot prices. In both cases, WANN model was found to provide more accurate crude oil
prices forecasts than individual ANN model.
1. Introduction
Crude oil prices fuctuations are of signifcant interest to both
fnancial practitioners and market participants. However,
crude oil price is one of the most complex and difcult to
model because fuctuation of the crude oil price is rather
irregular, nonlinear, nonstationary, and with high volatility.
Tus, accurate forecasting of the crude oil price time series is
one of the greatest challenges and among the most important
issues facing energy economists towards better decisions in
several managerial levels. For this reason, many researchers
have devoted considerable efort to the development of
diferent types of models for crude oil price forecasting.
Te application of the classical time series models such
as autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model (Moham-
madi and Su [1], Ahmad [2], Wang et al. [3], and Xie et al. [4])
and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic
(GARCH) type models (Morana [5], Sadorsky [6], and
Agnolucci [7]) for crude oil price forecasting has received
much attention in the last decade. However, the above models
can provide good prediction results, when the price series
under study is basically linear or near linear, and have
a limited ability to capture nonlinearity and nonstationary in
crude oil prices data.
Artifcial neural network (ANN) techniques have shown
great ability in modeling and forecasting nonlinear and
complex time series. ANN ofers an efective approach for
handling large amounts of dynamic, nonlinear, and noise
data. Numerous papers have already presented successful
application of ANN for modeling and forecasting the crude
oil price series (Lackes et al. [8], Khazem and Mazouz [9],
Mirmirani and Li [10], Kulkarni and Haidar [11], Yu et al. [12],
and Hu et al. [13]) as well as for forecasting real world time
series. Teir experimental results show that the performance
of ANN is superior to various traditional statistical models.
ANN has an ability to learn complex and nonlinear time
series that is difcult to model with conventional models.
However, there are some disadvantages of ANN. Although
ANN has advantages of accurate forecasting, their perfor-
mance in some specifc situation is inconsistent (Khashei and
Bijari [14]). ANN also ofen sufers from local minima and
overftting, and the network structure of this model is difcult
to determine and it is usually determined by using a trial-
and-error approach (Kis ¸i [15]). In addition, ANN model has
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Mathematical Problems in Engineering
Volume 2014, Article ID 201402, 10 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/201402