Probit Analysis of Fresh Meat Consumption in Belgium: Exploring BSE and Television Communication Impact Wim Verbeke University of Ghent, Department Agricultural Economics, Coupure Links 653, B-9000 Gent, Belgium Ronald W. Ward University of Florida, Food and Resource Economics, 1125 McCarty Hall, Gainesville, FL 32611-0240 Jacques Viaene University of Ghent, Department Agricultural Economics, Coupure Links 653, B-9000 Gent, Belgium ABSTRACT This article focuses on factors influencing consumer decision making toward fresh meat consump- tion in Belgium. Discrete choice models are specified for explaining consumer decisions to decrease fresh meat consumption since the BSE-crisis and toward to the future. Demographic consumer char- acteristics, consumption frequency and attention to television coverage are included as explanatory variables in the models. A major focus is the impact of television, which has carried several negative reports about meat safety during recent years. Television coverage is found to have a highly negative impact on decision making toward fresh red meat consumption. Model estimation and computation of predicted probabilities reveal that the likelihood of cutting fresh meat consumption increases with greater attention given to television messages, as well as with the presence of young children in the household and with increasing age of the consumer. Interaction between attention to television and age reveals that younger people’s decisions are more susceptive to media coverage. Heavy meat con- sumers are least likely to cut fresh meat consumption. Findings include implications for future live- stock production and communication by the meat industry. [Econ-Lit citations: D120, L660, M390] © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 1. INTRODUCTION During the period 1995 –1998, the decline in Belgium’s per capita fresh meat consump- tion has been similar to that seen in many European and other countries (GfK, 1998; MLC, 1997a, 1997b). Several articles have addressed this shift in demand, attempting to identify and measure factors contributing to the change and to propose ways out of what has been called a “fresh meat consumption crisis” and more specifically “beef crisis”. Changes in consumer taste and preference patterns are often cited as the principal caus- es (Anderson & Shugan, 1991; Moschini & Meilke, 1989; Piggott, Chalfant, Alston, & Griffith, 1996; Reynolds & Goddard, 1991; Rickertsen, 1996). While changing taste and preference patterns may be responsible for long-term shifts, shorter term consumption de- creases are believed to be linked to negative media coverage and communication prob- lems leading to image decline for the meat industry (Hoff & Claes, 1997; Verbeke, 1999; 215 Agribusiness, Vol. 16, No. 2, 215–234 (2000) © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.