Int. J. Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Vol. 11, Nos. 1/2, 2018 159
Copyright © 2018 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.
The response of oil market to US monetary policy
surprises
Tarek Chebbi
Faculty of Economic Sciences and Management of Sousse,
University of Sousse,
Cité Riadh, Sousse 4023, Tunisia
Email: chebbitarekfsegs@hotmail.fr
Abstract: The impact of monetary policy surprises from the USA on volatility
of oil returns are examined over a period of instability from January 5, 2004
through December 31, 2008. Following Kuttner (2001), I use the change in the
one-day current-month futures rate at a given date to measure monetary policy
news. Using EGARCH model, my results suggest that these shocks are an
important driver of the oil market. I find that the volatility reacts in a
statistically significant and economically relevant fashion to surprise changes in
the target rate. The estimated effect on the volatility is positive. Moreover, I
show that the daily changes in federal funds futures rates don’t have any role in
the dynamics of oil volatility during the sample period. Finally, I also show that
all model parameters to be highly significant with higher volatility persistence.
Keywords: federal open market committee; FOMC; US monetary policy
surprises; oil returns; conditional variance; EGARCH.
Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Chebbi, T. (2018)
‘The response of oil market to US monetary policy surprises’, Int. J. Economic
Policy in Emerging Economies, Vol. 11, Nos. 1/2, pp.159–168.
Biographical notes: Tarek Chebbi is an Associate Professor of Finance at
Faculty of Economic Sciences and Management of Sousse, Tunisia. His
research interests are financial markets, energy and commodity finance. He
obtained a PhD from Tunis University, Tunisia. His research has been
published in journals such as International Journal of Monetary Economics and
Finance, International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, IUP Journal of
Financial Risk Management, Journal of Energy Markets and Journal of Asset
Management.
1 Introduction
Throughout the last decade, commodity markets have experienced an exceptional
volatility and different phases of evolution. One possible explanation of the behaviour of
commodity prices is the influence of monetary policy actions on commodity markets.
1
In
early study, Frankel and Hardouvelis (1985) highlight a close link between news related
to monetary policy and commodity prices. A related channel has been discussed by
Frankel (1986), who shows in a theoretical model that monetary policy shocks has
important effects on agricultural commodity prices. More recently, Barsky and Kilian
(2002) document that the oil price increases appear to be strongly related to global