41 Broj 24, decembar 2019 Abstract: Tis study attempts to iden- tify an autoregressive distributed lag model (ADLM) as the data generating process of tourism demand in Opatija approximated by tourist nights. Empirical fnding yield to the conclusion that the fnal model passes all the diagnostic checking and that model fts the data reasonably well throughout the sample period. Quantitative researches of tourism demand and accurate forecasts generating should be at the basis of efcient and efec- tive planning and decision-making. Tourism demand modelling and forecasting, as many studies and researches demonstrated, is a rel- evant issue that can be helpful to all the stake- holders involved in the tourism and hotel in- dustry. Te accurate and timely forecast can anticipate future trends and allow to plan, organise and structure tourism capacities and supply more efciently. Key Words: Opatija, tourism demand, tourists nights, ADLM. Introduction Although Opatija is undoubtedly a dis- tinguished Croatian tourist destination with a 175-year long tourist tradition, new mar- ket trends, the technological revolution, and strong competition, there are new challenges towards future tourism and hotel industry growth and development. To achieve higher competitiveness, better performance results, attract more guests and tourists, reduce seasonality, build a stron- ger destination identity and brand Opatija, there is a need of cooperation and network- ing among all the stakeholders involved in Tea Baldigara, Ph.D. University of Rijeka, Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management, Opatija UDK 338.483(497.5) ANALYSING TOURISTS INFLOWS IN THE TOWN OF OPATIJA the tourism sector. At the basis of future ex- pansion activities should be, among others, performance indicator quantitative analys- ing and modelling. Quantitative modelling assumes a crucial role in the tourism indus- try, which needs accurate demand forecasts in order to perform efcient and efective planning and decision-making. Accurate tourism demand forecasts improve the ef- fciency of business decision-making and improve performances. Tourism demand modelling and forecasting, as many studies and researches demonstrated, is a relevant issue that can be helpful to all the stake- holders involved in the tourism and hotel industry. Accurate forecasts of tourism de- mand provide crucial information for tour- ism policy-making in both the government and business sectors (Shen, Li, Song, 2011). Accurate and timely forecasts can anticipate future trends and allow to plan, organise and structure tourism capacities more efciently. Given the importance of the tourism sec- tor for the town of Opatija and its economic and social impact on one hand, and the ne- cessity of accurate tourism performance and indicator forecasts on the other, this study aims to model the number of tourists’ nights as a proxy of tourism demand in the desti- nation. Opatija– Tourism in Figures On the top ten list on the cities and mu- nicipalities that achieved the best tourism and hotel industry business results in Croa- tia in 2018 Opatija,was ranked at eight posi- tion (MINT, 2018).