Theoretical Economics Letters, 2016, 6, 1186-1195
http://www.scirp.org/journal/tel
ISSN Online: 2162-2086
ISSN Print: 2162-2078
DOI: 10.4236/tel.2016.65112 October 21, 2016
Monetary Policy Impact on Stock Return:
Evidence from Growing Stock Markets
Raksha Bissoon, Boopen Seetanah, Reena Bhattu-Babajee, Narvada Gopy-Ramdhany
*
, Keshav Seetah
University of Mauritius, Moka, Mauritius
Abstract
This study investigates the impact of monetary policies on stock markets based on a
sample of five open countries with growing stock market over the period 2004 to
2014. Using a random effect model for the panel regression coupled with a panel
vector error correction model to study the short term and long term relationship
between the variables, the findings reveal a negative relation between interest rate
and stock return and a direct link between money supply and stock return. The re-
sults confirm that both in the short run and long run monetary variables explain
changes in stock return.
Keywords
Monetary Policy, Rate of Interest, Money Supply, Stock Return
1. Introduction
Financial markets and more specifically stock markets are considered as being highly
sensitive to changes occurring in the economy. Monetary policies are usually underta-
ken to restore or maintain stability within an economy and such policies can either be
expansive or restrictive with Central banks using interest rates and money supply as
monetary policy instruments. Stock valuation is done by using the future cashflows as-
sociated with the stocks and discounting at the appropriate interest rate, which is esti-
mated by considering the general level of interest rates prevailing in an economy. Dur-
ing expansive period, stock prices should normally be higher, given that the interest
rates at which cashflows are discounted will be lower and also there should be a boost
in economic activity. A restrictive period means higher interest rates and lower future
economic activity, entailing lower stock prices.
The quantity theory of money formalizes the link relating money supply and stock
prices. When there is an increase in money supply, there will be a surplus in the quan-
How to cite this paper: Bissoon, R., Seeta-
nah, B., Bhattu-Babajee, R., Gopy-Ramdhany,
N. and Seetah, K. (2016) Monetary Policy
Impact on Stock Return: Evidence from
Growing Stock Markets. Theoretical Eco-
nomics Letters, 6, 1186-1195.
http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/tel.2016.65112
Received: September 2, 2016
Accepted: October 19, 2016
Published: October 21, 2016
Copyright © 2016 by authors and
Scientific Research Publishing Inc.
This work is licensed under the Creative
Commons Attribution International
License (CC BY 4.0).
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Open Access