Geographia Polonica 2021, Volume 94, Issue 3, pp. 441-457 https://doi.org/10.7163/GPol.0214 INSTITUTE OF GEOGRAPHY AND SPATIAL ORGANIZATION POLISH ACADEMY OF SCIENCES www.igipz.pan.pl www.geographiapolonica.pl ESTIMATING THE SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC IMPACT OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC: A REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE Zizi Goschin 1,2 • Daniela-Luminita Constantin 1 1 Bucharest University of Economic Studies Piata Romana 6, sector 1, RO-010374 Bucharest: Romania 2 Institute of National Economy Calea 13 Septembrie 13, sector 5, RO-050731 Bucharest: Romania e-mails: zizi.goschin@csie.ase.ro • daniela.constantin@amp.ase.ro (corresponding author) Abstract Given the economic crisis related to the current COVID-19 pandemic, decision makers need to better under- stand how to effectively allocate their limited resources to support the most severely affected regions. In this context our research seeks to identify the regions that are economically vulnerable, as well as those that are more resilient, using information on the industries negatively impacted by travel restrictions and social dis- tancing measures. With this aim in view, we propose a vulnerability index calculated using regions’ location coefficients by activity and the forecasted decline of these activities at national level and test it for the Roma- nian economy. We argue that regional specialisation itself is not the source of the current problems, but the high dependence of many regional economies on economic activities directly affected by measures designed to mitigate the epidemic impact is the root cause of future economic decline. Key words COVID-19 pandemic • economic effects • regional specialisation • vulnerability index • Romania Introduction As the world finds itself on an unexplored ter- ritory, being confronted with the first global pandemic of the 21st century, we believe that the economic science research can offer crucial information on the possible effects of the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic, given the measures undertaken in order to diminish its spreading, with large economic consequences. The scientific community has the important tasks to correctly define the gen- erated challenges, to propose proper inquiry methodologies and to offer evidence-based reports of scientific results, followed by their communication to all relevant actors: academ- ic community, policy-makers and interested public (Gombos et al., 2020). The vast majority of countries have impo- sed strict policies for the disease prevention