Accident Analysis and Prevention 71 (2014) 15–21
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Accident Analysis and Prevention
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Effects of excessive speeding and falling asleep while driving on crash
injury severity in Ethiopia: A generalized ordered logit model analysis
Teferi Abegaz
a,∗
, Yemane Berhane
b
, Alemayehu Worku
c
,
Abebe Assrat
d
, Abebayehu Assefa
e
a
School of Public and Environmental Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Hawassa University, Hawassa, Ethiopia
b
Addis Continental Institute of Public Health, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
c
School of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
d
Ministry of Transport, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
e
World Health Organization (WHO) Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
a r t i c l e i n f o
Article history:
Received 8 December 2013
Received in revised form 3 May 2014
Accepted 3 May 2014
Keywords:
Injury severity
Generalized ordered logit model
Significant factors
Highway safety
a b s t r a c t
The severity of injury from vehicle crash is a result of a complex interaction of factors related to drivers’
behavior, vehicle characteristics, road geometric and environmental conditions. Knowing to what extent
each factor contributes to the severity of an injury is very important. The objective of the study was to
assess factors that contribute to crash injury severity in Ethiopia. Data was collected from June 2012 to
July 2013 on one of the main and busiest highway of Ethiopia, which extends from the capital Addis
Ababa to Hawassa. During the study period a total of 819 road crashes was recorded and investigated by
trained crash detectors. A generalized ordered logit/partial proportional odds model was used to examine
factors that might influence the severity of crash injury. Model estimation result suggested that, alcohol
use (Coef. = 0.5565; p-value = 0.017), falling asleep while driving (Coef. = 1.3102; p-value = 0.000), driving
at night time in the absence of street light (Coef. = 0.3920; p-value = 0.033), rainfall (Coef. = 0.9164; p-
value = 0.000) and being a minibus or vans (Coef. = 0.5065; p-value = 0.013) were found to be increased
crash injury severity. On the other hand, speeding was identified to have varying coefficients for different
injury levels, its highest effects on sever and fatal crashes. In this study risky driving behaviors (speeding,
alcohol use and sleep/fatigue) were a powerful predictor of crash injury severity. Therefore, better driver
licensing and road safety awareness campaign complimented with strict police enforcement can play a
pivotal role to improve road safety. Further effort needed as well to monitor speed control strategies like;
using the radar control and physical speed restraint measures (i.e., rumble strips).
© 2014 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
1. Introduction
Severity of an injury is the result of a complex interaction
between several factors representing driver and other road users,
road characteristics, vehicle defect and design, and environmen-
tal characteristics including weather condition and light (Mondal
et al., 2011; Thompson et al., 2013). Understanding to what extent
each factor contributes to the severity of crash related injury is one
of the most effective means to improve highway safety.
The human factor appears in the literature as being the most
common determinants of road safety. Demographic characteristics:
∗
Corresponding author. Tel.: +251 911361607.
E-mail addresses: teferiabegaz@gmail.com, tefabeg@yahoo.com (T. Abegaz),
yemaneberhane@gmail.com (Y. Berhane), alemayehuwy@yahoo.com (A. Worku),
abebeasrt@yahoo.com (A. Assrat), abebayehua@et.afro.who.int (A. Assefa).
male, younger and older drivers are more likely to be involved in
death and severe injury crashes (Dissanayake and Lu, 2002; Helai
et al., 2008; Shope and Bingham, 2008; Haleem and Gan, 2013).
As indicated by many researchers the strongest association of
crash injury severity are related to behavioral factors, including:
alcohol/drug use (Kuruc et al., 2009; Tsui et al., 2010; Ponce
et al., 2011; Hels et al., 2013); speeding (Dissanayake and Lu,
2002; Afukaar, 2003); failure to wear seat belts (Munk et al.,
2008; Siskinda et al., 2011; Kashani et al., 2012); using mobile
phone while driving (Violanti, 1998) and sleep/fatigue (Radun and
Summala, 2004). Speeding is a critical safety concern, especially for
developing countries, where fatalities are more common among
pedestrians and users of two- and three-wheelers (Mohan, 2002).
Fatigue crashes are usually severe, as the driver makes no attempt
to limit the consequence (Radun and Summala, 2004). Such types
of crashes are linked with the nature of the road alignment; good
condition of the road network make the driver task easy and
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2014.05.003
0001-4575/© 2014 Published by Elsevier Ltd.