Critical Dialogue
Diffusion of Democracy: The Past and Future of Global
Democracy. By Barbara Wejnert. New York: Cambridge University
Press, 2014. 363p. $99.00.
doi:10.1017/S153759271500047X
— Kurt Weyland, University of Texas at Austin
During the last two decades, the social sciences have seen
a dramatic increase in the study of diffusion processes;
a growing number of scholars have investigated how and
why economic, social, and political innovations spread
across nations, or across states inside federal countries,
such as the United States and Brazil.
The first phase of research has examined the extent
to which external influences impact domestic decision
making: Do demonstration and contagion effects make
a significant difference, and what is their effect, by contrast
to the standard domestic determinants of decision making?
After many scholars applying ever more sophisticated
statistical techniques documented the importance of dif-
fusion processes in a number of areas of society, politics,
and policy, a second stage of research in the last few years
began to disentangle the exact nature of external influences
and the causal mechanisms through which they operate.
Do decision makers learn from the success of front-runners
and assess the benefits and costs of their reforms in
systematic, thorough, and rational ways? Or do innovative
experiences serve as models that exert strong normative
appeal and raise the standards of appropriate behavior,
pushing latecomers toward imitation? Alternatively, are
innovations actively promoted by their initiators or by
international organizations or great powers, which promote
their spread with more or less forceful pressure? These
questions, which mark the current research frontier, speak
to major theoretical debates over rationality versus socio-
logical motivations and over sovereignty and hierarchy in
the contemporary global system.
Consequently, the study of diffusion phenomena con-
stitutes one of the most vibrant and exciting research areas
in the social sciences. One added attraction arises from the
fact that diffusion research productively trespasses outdated
dividing lines between the subfields of comparative politics
and international relations; between “American” politics
and the remainder of political science; and, above all, among
sociology, political science, and other disciplines.
Barbara Wejnert’s wide-ranging and ambitious book
embodies this interdisciplinary approach. As a political
sociologist, she conducts a comprehensive analysis of the
Diffusion of Democracy at the global level over the course of
the last two centuries. While her predominant approach is
the statistical investigation of a worldwide data set, the
study also draws on the author’s intensive interview research
with democratic activists in Eastern Europe, which focuses
on the fall of communism and the subsequent transition
to democracy.
Chapter 1 sets up the analysis by explaining the mea-
surement of democracy, which relies largely on Polity IV
and Freedom House, and by depicting the growth of
democracy in the world since 1800. Chapter 2 first offers
an ample overview of the theoretical literature, which
Wejnert divides into diffusion approaches and develop-
ment approaches. She discusses a great variety of external
influences, which can arise from the spatial proximity of
democratic countries, from the density of democracy in
a region of the globe, from networks of communication
channels, and from the media, for instance. Internal factors,
by contrast, include a country’s socioeconomic development
level, its value system, and political conditions, especially
prior experience with democracy.
To capture the interplay of diffusion and development,
Wejnert then designs a threshold model of democratic
transition. Accordingly, particularly strong external
influences can lift a country toward democracy at low
development levels, while a high development level can
produce this outcome despite limited diffusion effects;
intermediate combinations of the two types of factors
tend to have the same result. In the second half of
Chapter 2, she illustrates the threshold model through
an application to the downfall of communism in Eastern
Europe and then provides thorough evidence of diffu-
sion networks by reporting many interesting findings
and quotes from her interviews with East European
activists, with a special focus on her native Poland.
Chapter 3 contains the analytical core of the book,
namely, statistical analyses that assess the relative impact of
development versus diffusion factors. To do justice to the
complexity of external influences, which can operate at the
country and regional level, Wejnert applies hierarchical
modeling and complements her investigation of the global
growth of democracy with studies of all the major regions
494 Perspectives on Politics © American Political Science Association 2015
Critical Dialogues