1
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not neces-
sarily reflect the views of the United Nations or its Member States. The author is grate-
ful to Peter Humphreys, Yoram Gorlizki and Michael Moran for their comments and
discussions on earlier versions of this article, and to an anonymous referee for very
helpful comments and suggestions.
2
J. Elster, C. Offe and U. K. Preuss, Institutional Design in Post-Communist Societies:
Rebuilding the Ship at Sea, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1998.
Lucian Cernat
1
The Politics of Banking in Romania:
Soft Loans, Looting and Cardboard
Billionaires
IN THE LAST TWELVE YEARS, ROMANIA HAS BEEN ENGAGED IN A MAJOR
systemic transformation, from a communist system towards a market
economy. After the demise of communism and the overthrow of a
brutal dictatorship, most analysts expected a rapid improvement in
the economic and political situation in the country. While a demo-
cracy has been established fairly rapidly, the economic evolution has
been far below expectations. Although the economic evolution was
uneven across the entire Central and East European region, some
countries were more successful than others in transforming their
economy without a persistent decline in output. For Romania the
initial years of transition have triggered a significant decline in eco-
nomic growth, followed by a slow and only partial recovery. After
more than a decade of transition, Romania has yet to reach the 1991
GDP level.
There have been numerous attempts to explain the variance
in the economic performance of Central and East European coun-
tries (CEECs) during the last decade. Some theories emphasize the
major institutional changes involved during the transformation
from socialism to capitalism and the disorganization that followed
the sudden end of central planning. ‘Rebuilding the ship at sea’
2
therefore had severe economic implications for the CEECs. Other
theories have underlined more specifically the lack of openness
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