Towards an Objective Function for Slovenian
Fiscal Policy-making: A Heuristic Approach"
Klaus Weyerstrass and Reinhard Neck
University of Klagenfurt, A-9020 Klagenfurt, Austria
Abstract. In this paper, we use an optimum control approach to con-
struct an objective function for Slovenian fiscal policy-making. At first,
a quadratic objective function with variables that might be of interest to
a policy-maker is optimized subject to the econometric model SLOPOLI
of the Slovenian economy. Next, optimization with variations of parame-
ters of the objective function is performed. These variations concern the
weights and values of the target variables, the discount factor, and the
planning horizon. The aim is to obtain an objective function that comes
as close as possible to the preferences of fiscal policy-makers in Slovenia,
so as to develop a decision support system for economic policy-makers
for this country.
Keywords: Econometric modeling, forecasting and simulation, optimal
control, policy objectives, fiscal policy.
1 Introduction
In the first years after having gained independence from former Yugoslavia in
1991, the main concern of Slovenian monetary and fiscal policy was to reduce the
high inflation and to overcome the economic recession with declining real GDP
and increasing unemployment. As inflation has reached one-digit figures and
real GDP has been growing for several years, economic policy in Slovenia now
aims at approaching GDP per capita comparable to the average of the European
Union, because the ultimate goal of Slovenian policy is the membership of the
* The work described in this paper was initiated within the framework of the con-
tract "Integriert es Energieprogramm - Makrookonomisches Modell fiir Slowenien
(Austrian-Slovenian Co-operation for an Integrated Energy Program - Development
and Implementation of a Macroeconomic Model)" between the Slovenian Ministry of
Economic Affairs and Verbundplan GmbH , financed by the Austrian Federal Chan-
cellery (Bundeskanzleramt). The authors are indebted to Tanja Cesen and Igor Strm-
snik , Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development (IMAD), Ljubljana, for
providing the data, to Gottfried Haber, University of Klagenfurt, for adaptations of
the algorithm OPTCON and for assistance in conducting the research for this pa-
per, and to Christina Kopetzky for editing the paper in 'lEX. The present research
has been supported by the Austrian Science Foundation (FWF) under contract no.
P12745-0EK and by the Ludwig Boltzmann Institute for Economic Analysis, Vi-
enna.
A. S. Tangian et al. (eds.), Constructing and Applying Objective Functions
© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2002