Journal of Power Sources 160 (2006) 446–453
Estimating the early household market for light-duty
hydrogen-fuel-cell vehicles and other “Mobile Energy”
innovations in California: A constraints analysis
Brett D. Williams
*
, Kenneth S. Kurani
Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California at Davis, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616, USA
Received 30 November 2005; accepted 23 December 2005
Available online 18 April 2006
Abstract
Facing stiff competition from conventional and gasoline-hybrid vehicles, the commercialization prospects for hydrogen-fuel-cell vehicles
(H
2
FCVs) are uncertain. Starting from the premise that new consumer value must drive their adoption, early markets for H
2
FCVs are explored in
the context of a group of promising opportunities collectively called mobile energy (ME) innovation. An estimate of the initial market potential
for ME-enabled vehicles is produced by applying various constraints that eliminate unlikely households from consideration for early adoption of
H
2
FCVs and other ME technologies (such as plug-in hybrids). Currently 5.2 million of 33.9 million Californians live in households pre-adapted
to ME-enabled vehicles, 3.9 million if natural gas is required for home refueling. Several differences in demographic and other characteristics
between the target market and the population as a whole are highlighted, and two issues related to the design of H
2
FCVs and their supporting
infrastructure are discussed: vehicle range and home hydrogen refueling. These findings argue for continued investigation of this and similar target
segments—which represent more efficient research populations for subsequent study by product designers and other decision-makers wishing to
understand the early market dynamics facing H
2
FCVs and related ME innovations.
© 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Hydrogen-fuel-cell vehicle; Household market potential; Mobile energy innovation; Home refueling; Vehicle-to-grid power; Plug-in hybrid
1. Introduction
1.1. Problem: commercializing fuel-cell vehicles
Despite the potential benefits to society of commercializing
alternative-fuel vehicles (AFVs), past efforts have largely been
unsuccessful. Pervasive and mature automotive products and
the petroleum-based energy system represent formidable perfor-
mance and cost challenges to any alternative. Hydrogen-fuel-cell
vehicles (H
2
FCVs) face similar fundamental challenges for the
foreseeable future, e.g., high cost, compromised driving range
per refueling, and lack of a refueling infrastructure. Accordingly,
H
2
FCVs’ commercialization prospects remain highly uncertain.
This paper was presented at the 2005 Fuel Cell Seminar at Palm Springs,
CA, USA.
*
Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 530 752 1599; fax: +1 530 752 6572.
E-mail address: bwilliams@ucdavis.edu (B.D. Williams).
How might H
2
FCVs (or any AFV) succeed where past efforts
have failed?
1.2. Approach: “Mobile Energy” innovation
Even in the absence of vehicle performance limitations,
robust private value propositions for H
2
FCVs would be neces-
sary to sustain their successful commercialization and displace-
ment of today’s mature and high-performing cars and trucks.
Because H
2
FCVs thus far are not superior to today’s vehicles on
those dimensions conventionally valued by private consumers,
product value must flow from other sources. The premise of
this and related work at the University of California at Davis’
Institute of Transportation Studies is that H
2
FCVs will not
sell simply as clean cars and trucks; they must be marketed
as new products that provide innovative value to consumers.
Given this premise, the question then becomes “What might
help redefine H
2
FCVs as new products, thereby driving their
commercialization?”
0378-7753/$ – see front matter © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.jpowsour.2005.12.097