Statement Validity Analysis of ªThe Jim Ragsdale Storyº : Implications for the Roswell Incident J AMES H OURAN Southern Illinois University School of Medicine, Dept. of Psychiatry P. O. Box 19230, Spring® eld, IL 62794-9230 STEPHEN P ORTER University of British Columbia, Department of Psychology 2509-2136 W. Mall, University Campus Vancouver, B. C. V6T 1Z4 Abstract Ð ª The Jim Ragsdale Storyº purports to be the only known first- hand testimony to the alleged UFO crash near Roswell, New Mexico in 1947. This testimony, in the form of an affidavit and a less formal conversational account, was analyzed using Statement Validity Analysis (SVA) which is an established technique for evaluating the credibility of forensic witness ac- counts, and Fact Pattern Analysis which is a less formal procedure that com- plements SVA. SVA indicated that the testimony was not consistent with known features of memories for true events. Similarly, the fact pattern analy- sis identified major factual inconsistencies as well as potential implausible information. These findings suggest that ª The Jim Ragsdale Storyº is not credible. Accordingly, the possibilities that the Ragsdale story represents a deliberate fabrication or sincerely reported memories of imagined experience are discussed. Keywords: UFOs Ð aliens Ð Roswell Ð extraterrestial Ð credibility assessment Introduction In early July of 1947 an airborne object crashed on a ranch in the New Mexico desert during a violent thunderstorm. It was discovered by a rancher Mac Brazel and the debris was described as being scattered over a large area and having unconventional properties. It was shown to local authorities who in turn contacted the Roswell Army Air Field. A military investigation ensued which prompted a press release reporting the crash and retrieval of a ª flying disc.º A subsequent press release from higher authorities retracted the claim stating that personnel had recovered the remnants of a weather balloon, not a ª flying disc.º The events have become known as the Roswell Incident Ð one of the most controversial and enduring cases in Ufology. Berlitz and Moore (1980) made a preliminary study of this case, but Friedman and Berliner’s (1992) seminal research was the first to locate many of the early witnesses. Journal of Scienti® c Exploration, Vol. 12, No. 1, pp. 57± 71, 1998 0892-3310/98 © 1998 Society for Scienti® c Exploration 57 57