Assessing the predictability of future livelihood strategies of pastoralists in semi-arid Morocco under climate change Korbinian P. Freier a,e, ⁎, Rainer Bruggemann b , Jürgen Scheffran c , Manfred Finckh d , Uwe A. Schneider e a International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modeling (IMPRS-ESM), Bundesstr. 53, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany b Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Müggelseedamm 310, D-12587 Berlin, Germany c Research Group Climate Change and Security, Institute for Geography and KlimaCampus, Hamburg University, ZMAW, Bundesstrasse 53, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany d Biocentre Klein Flottbek and Botanical Garden, University of Hamburg, Ohnhorststr. 18, D-22609 Hamburg, Germany e Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Center for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Hamburg University, Bundesstr. 55, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany article info abstract Article history: Received 1 February 2011 Received in revised form 14 June 2011 Accepted 4 July 2011 Available online 3 August 2011 This study assesses the predictability of future livelihood strategies of transhumant pastoralists in semi-arid Morocco. A decrease in precipitation due to climate change will likely threaten their traditional livelihood strategy. We examine whether the pastoralists explicitly prefer certain alternative strategies or if their reactions will be contingent. Our analysis uses standardized interviews focussing on two aspects: firstly, which resources are necessary for the pastoralists to be able to choose a livelihood strategy? Secondly, to what degree are expectations of well-being satisfied by alternative strategies? To assign levels of predictability to all investigated strategies, we analyze the interviews using simple methods of partial order theory. We find that under perceived precipitation scarcity, 38% of pastoralists would explicitly opt for sedentarity and localized pastoralism as alternative strategy. Unclear preferences are given for 25% of the cases. Considering a policy scenario of enhanced access to education and capital, our analysis indicates commercial pastoralism as dominant alternative. However, such a scenario would increase the share of unclear preferences to 43%, which increases the likelihood of a contingent development. The method we propose can be considered as a mathematical basis for the concept of historical contingency. © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: Adaptation Global change Historical contingency Multi criteria analysis Transhumant pastoralism Partially ordered sets Path-dependence 1. Introduction In our study we assess the predictability of future livelihood strategies of transhumant pastoralists in semi-arid Morocco. The region of interest is likely to experience considerable alterations in precipitation during the 21st century [1], leading to modifications of livelihood strategies and agricultural techniques. The extent to which livelihood strategies will be modified is unclear, since socio-ecological systems are traditionally considered as very difficult to predict. Reasons for poor predictability are a high complexity of internal structures and involvement of partly unpredictable human agency (e.g. [2,3]). Given these constraints on predictability, social sciences mostly investigate socio-ecological systems from a historical perspective. Random events, which strongly impact the subsequent development of these systems, are considered as so-called historical contingencies which lead to path-dependence [4–7]. Historical contingencies are seen as an irreducible gap in the causal narrative [5] and therefore principally prevent valid predictions about socio-ecological systems. Technological Forecasting & Social Change 79 (2012) 371–382 ⁎ Corresponding author at: International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modeling (IMPRS-ESM), Bundesstr. 53, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany. Tel.: +49 40 428387243; fax: +49 40 428387009. E-mail address: korbinian.freier@zmaw.de (K.P. Freier). 0040-1625/$ – see front matter © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2011.07.003 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Technological Forecasting & Social Change