RESEARCH ARTICLE The Race for Critical Minerals in an Era of Geopolitical Realignments Sophia Kalantzakos New York University/NYU Abu Dhabi and Princeton University ABSTRACT The decarbonisation of the global economy in response to the climate crisis and the fourth industrial revolution, featuring artifcial intelligence (AI) and 5G networks (massively accelerated in response to the coronavirus pandemic), has triggered a race to secure uninterrupted access to critical raw minerals (CRMs) that are indispensable inputs for high-technology applications. Moreover, China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which unites Eurasia and Africa and loops in South America into a seamless space of trade, infrastructure and digital connectivity, challenges the dom- inance of traditional industrial powers (the United States, the European Union and Japan) and requires critical minerals. Rare earths, lithium and cobalt – among the most critical of the CRMs – are found in high geographic concentration, creating hotspots of contention, especially in unstable parts of the world. As economic transformations accelerate, securing access to these materials will both impact and help shape geopolitics in the years to come. KEYWORDS critical minerals; 5G; China; geopolitics; rare earths; Belt and Road Initiative In the wake of the fourth industrial revolution and the decarbonisation of the global economy in response to the climate crisis, a new race to secure uninterrupted access to critical minerals (CRMs), namely those essential to the production of high-tech, renew- able energy and defence applications, is currently underway. Given global dependence on these inputs, the possibility of resource scarcity represents a growing concern to nations and industries. While stock depletion has not yet become an issue for any single mineral, flow disruption is becoming more frequent for a number of reasons that include embargoes, conflicts, trade wars and, recently, the global pandemic COVID-19. In addition, geopolitical competition is becoming increasingly entwined with access to critical minerals because they are indispensable to the next global economic transforma- tion, highly geographically concentrated and vulnerable to disruption. These underlying risks have prompted major industrial nations to compile critical materials lists: the US and Japan in 2008, and the European Union in 2011. 1 The selection of CRMs was based on definitions of criticality that largely focused on supply chains vulnerable to disruption and materials essential to the functioning and production of applications without which the impact on the economy and security would be high. CONTACT Sophia Kalantzakos sophia.kalantzakos@nyu.edu 1 European Commission, Critical Raw Materials. https://ec.europa.eu/growth/sectors/raw-materials/specific-interest/criti cal_en (accessed 14 June 2020). THE INTERNATIONAL SPECTATOR 2020, VOL. 55, NO. 3, 1–16 https://doi.org/10.1080/03932729.2020.1786926 © 2020 Istituto Affari Internazionali