Technical note Impacts of CO 2 emission constraints on penetration of solar PV in the Bangladesh power sector q Md. Alam Hossain Mondal a, * , A.K.M. Sadrul Islam b a Energy Institute, AERE, Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission, Dhaka, Bangladesh b Department of Mechanical & Chemical Engineering, Islamic University of Technology, Gazipur, Bangladesh article info Article history: Received 26 September 2011 Accepted 27 December 2011 Available online 17 January 2012 Keywords: Solar PV CO 2 emission MARKAL model Bangladesh power sector abstract This paper examines the impacts of CO 2 emission reduction targets and carbon tax on future technologies selection especially solar PV and energy use in Bangladesh power sector during 2005e2035. It also examines the co-benefits of energy security of the country. The analyses are based on a long-term energy system optimization model of Bangladesh using the MARKAL framework. The results of the study show that on a simple cost base, power generated from solar PV is not yet competitive with that of fossil fuel- based power plants. Alternative policies on CO 2 emission constraints reduce the burden of imported fuel, improve energy security and reduce environmental impacts. The results show that the introduction of the CO 2 emission reduction targets and carbon tax directly affect the shift of technologies from high carbon content fossil-based to low carbon content fossil-based and clean solar PV technologies compared to the base scenario. The cumulative net energy imports during 2005e2035 would be reduced in the range of 33e61% compared to the base scenario. The total primary energy requirement would be reduced in the range of 4.5e22.37% and the primary energy supply system would be diversified. Solar PV plays an important role in achieving reasonable energy security. Ó 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction The future economic development of Bangladesh is likely to result in a rapid growth in the demand for energy with accompa- nying shortages and problems. The country has been facing a severe power crisis for about a decade. Known reserves (e.g., natural gas and coal) of commercial primary energy sources in Bangladesh are limited in comparison to the development needs of the country [1]. Power generation in the country is almost entirely dependent on fossil fuels, mainly natural gas that accounted for 81% of the total installed electricity generation capacity (5719 MW) in 2009 [2]. At the current rate of increase in consumption (10% annually), the national proven reserve of natural gas may not last more than 15e20 years [3]. Only about 42% of total population has been connected to electricity [4], with vast majority being deprived of a power supply. The government of Bangladesh has declared that it aims to provide electricity for all by the year 2020, although at present there is high unsatisfied demand for energy, which is growing by more than 8% annually [5,6]. Coal is expected to be the main fuel for electricity generation. The government of Bangladesh has planned to generate 2900 MW power from coal in the next 5 years [1], although coal power has adverse environmental effects and coal reserves are limited. The government has also focused on furnace-oil-based peaking power plants. As a result, the share of CO 2 emissions coming from fossil fuel-based power plants in the national CO 2 inventory is expected to grow, and there is a growing dependency on imported fossil fuels for power generation. On the other hand, technical potential of grid-commented renewable energy technologies specifically solar PV to generate electricity is relatively very high in Bangladesh that is 10 times higher than present generation capacity [4]. The technical potential of wind and biomass based grid connected power generation in Bangladesh is relatively low and details is given in [4], that is why wind and biomass are not considered in this study. Increasing the use of fossil fuels to meet the growing worldwide electricity demand, especially in developing countries, not only counteracts the need to prevent climate change globally but also has negative environmental effects locally. In Bangladesh, the power sector alone contributes 40% of the total CO 2 emissions [7,8]. CO 2 is the principal greenhouse gas (GHG), produced mainly from the combustion of fossil fuels. Improved efficiency in the use of fossil fuels and increased use of renewable energy sources are q The materials and methods of this paper accepted and presented in World Renewable Energy Congress Sweden - 2011, 8e11 May, 2011, Linkoping, Sweden. * Corresponding author. Tel.: þ880 27790009. E-mail address: alam_90119@yahoo.com (Md.A. Hossain Mondal). Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect Renewable Energy journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/renene 0960-1481/$ e see front matter Ó 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.renene.2011.12.019 Renewable Energy 43 (2012) 418e422