Climate change and security in the Israeli– Palestinian context Eran Feitelson Hebrew University of Jerusalem Abdelrahman Tamimi Palestinian Hydrology Group for Water and Environmental Resources Development Gad Rosenthal Kivun Consulting Abstract The Middle East is among the least stable and most fragile regions. It is not surprising, therefore, that concerns have been raised regarding the potential implications of climate change. This article critically examines the potential inter- actions between climate change and conflict in the Israeli–Palestinian case. Based on a review of the possible effects of climate change, water is identified as the main issue which may be affected, and it also has transboundary implica- tions. We illustrate the potential implications of reduced freshwater availability by assessing the ability to supply normative domestic water needs under rapid population growth scenarios, including return of refugees. In addition, the ability to supply environmental needs and the needs of peripheral farmers under extremely reduced availability scenarios is examined. The normative domestic demand in Israel and the West Bank can be supplied on the basis of natural resources, though re-allocation of water from Israel to the Palestinians is necessary. The Gaza Strip cannot supply the normative domestic needs under any scenario and hence requires immediate augmentation, regardless of climate change. Desalination can supply Gaza’s needs and augment water resources in Israel and the West Bank, thereby partially decoupling domestic and agricultural use from climate. Thus, it is unlikely that climate change will directly affect the conflict. However, framing water as a security issue, along with the potential for furthering such securitization with reference to climate change, may adversely affect the readiness of the parties to take adaptive mea- sures and lead them to rigidify their negotiating positions. Possible effects of climate change on other regional players, particularly Egypt and Jordan, may have indirect effects on the Israeli–Palestinian scene. But this hypothesis requires further study. Keywords climate change, Israel, Middle East, Palestine, water Introduction As fears of the destabilizing effects mount, climate change is increasingly being referred to as a security issue. In 2009 the UN General Assembly adopted a non- binding resolution on climate change as an international security problem (A/Res/63/281 11 June). However, how climate change affects security has not been made clear. Barnett & Adger (2007) suggest that such effects may be an outcome of reduced access to natural resources that sustain livelihoods or of undermining states’ capacity to provide opportunities and services. Corresponding author: msfeitel@mscc.huji.ac.il Journal of Peace Research 49(1) 241–257 ª The Author(s) 2012 Reprints and permission: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav DOI: 10.1177/0022343311427575 jpr.sagepub.com p eace R ESEARCH journal of