When confidence is detrimental: Influence of overconfidence on leadership effectiveness Amanda S. Shipman ⁎, Michael D. Mumford University of Oklahoma, OK, USA article info abstract Available online 8 June 2011 Confident leaders are seen as competent and capable by others. However, excessive amounts of confidence may be detrimental to a leader's performance. The purpose of the current study was to identify indicators of overconfidence and examine the influence that overconfidence has on certain kinds of leader performance. Results indicated two elements of overconfidence: seeing deficiencies and expectations of positive outcomes. Low levels of confidence associated with seeing many deficiencies, is beneficial to performance in leader planning and vision formation. However, high levels of confidence associated with expectations of positive outcomes, are related to effective vision statements. Implications for results are discussed. © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: Overconfidence Self-confidence Self-efficacy Leader cognition Planning Vision Self-confidence is traditionally viewed as valuable to leadership performance. Leaders who are confident welcome challenges and set difficult goals (Luthans, Luthans, Hodgetts, & Luthans, 2001). Not only is confidence said to help leaders take the risks needed to persevere in working towards their visions and objectives (Black & Porter, 2000; Northouse, 1997), but a leader's confidence increases the follower's willingness to work toward the leader's objectives (Luthans & Peterson, 2002). The question arises as to whether this leader characteristic is always beneficial. Confidence, when in excess may be the underlying cause for leaders making poor decisions, continuing with failing plans, and ignoring obvious flaws. The repercussions of these actions are more than inconvenient, but quite detrimental as seen throughout history in incidents like the Bay of Pigs debacle and Napoleon's March on Moscow. Given the potentially detrimental consequences of overconfidence in leadership, exploring this topic further is warranted. Although leadership researchers have not focused specifically on excessive confidence, related topics have been explored in the literature on destructive leadership. Leadership hubris is one such area that has received some attention. Hubris reflects individuals with not only excessive self-confidence, but also puffed up egos and highly positive, unrealistic self-evaluations (see Judge, Piccola, & Kosalka, 2009). Thus, hubris includes overconfidence, but it also extends beyond just overconfidence into constructs like pride and self-worth. Owen and Davidson (2009) described how certain American presidents have demonstrated hubristic behaviors, including Kennedy with the Bay of Pigs fiasco, Nixon with the Watergate scandal, and Bush with the decision to invade Iraq. Destructive leadership researchers have acknowledged that even leader traits that are considered beneficial can become destructive. Along these lines, theories of charismatic leadership were originally proposed to describe a positive and effective leadership style (e.g., Bass, 1985; Bass & Avolio, 1994; House & Howell, 1992; Yukl, 2002), however, charisma can have a ‘dark side’ where it becomes destructive and ineffective (Conger, 1990; Howell & Avolio, 1992; Padilla, Hogan, & Kaiser, 2007). The destructive charismatic leader may pursue personalized objectives at the expense of others, identify so heavily with his/her vision that gross errors and miscalculations are made, and manipulate others to maintain control (Conger, 1990). Deluga (2001) proposed that destructive charismatics share a similar feature as Machiavellians, which is self-confidence. Machiavellianism is another destructive leadership approach that involves pursuing one's own self-interests using manipulation and deceit (Christie & Geis, 1970). The Leadership Quarterly 22 (2011) 649–665 ⁎ Corresponding author. E-mail address: shipman.amanda@gmail.com (A.S. Shipman). 1048-9843/$ – see front matter © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.leaqua.2011.05.006 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect The Leadership Quarterly journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/leaqua