Simulation of historical and current fire regimes in central Saskatchewan Chao Li a, * , Hugh Barclay b , Jianwei Liu c , Doug Campbell d a Northern Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, 5320-122 Street, Edmonton, Alta., Canada T6H 3S5 b Pacific Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, 506 Burnside Road, Victoria, BC, Canada V8Z 1Z6 c Forestry Branch, Manitoba Conservation, Box 70, 200 Saulteaux Cres., Winnipeg, Man., Canada R3J 3W3 d Forest Ecosystems Branch, Saskatchewan Environment, 800 Central Avenue, Box 3003, Prince Albert, Sask., Canada S6V 6G1 Received 29 May 2004; received in revised form 6 January 2005; accepted 6 January 2005 Abstract Evaluation and implementation of the forest policy of emulating natural fire patterns in harvest planning require a good understanding of both natural and human influenced fire regimes. The SEM-LAND model (Spatially Explicit Model for LANdscape Dynamics) was employed to simulate both natural and current fire regimes in central Saskatchewan. The model used the indexes and relationships summarized in the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System and the Canadian Forest Fire Behavior Prediction System to simulate the interactions among fire events, landscape structures, topography, and weather conditions. The impact of fire suppression operations on fire spread simulated the following three stages: fire ignition, initial attack, and fire escape. Our results suggest that fire suppression could lead to longer fire cycles, smaller mean fire sizes, more fire numbers per year, and increased mean forest age (time-since-fire). The relationship between mean forest age and annual area burned was estimated from the results of this model experiment. This relationship can be used to determine the ideal fire management target of annual allowable area burned from expected future forest conditions. We conclude that the SEM-LAND model was capable of simulating fire regimes in Saskatchewan. # 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Keywords: Fire regime; SEM-LAND model; Saskatchewan; Fire suppression simulation; Fire management 1. Introduction The ultimate goal of contemporary forest land management is to achieve sustainable resource development and to maintain biodiversity for the benefit of current and future generations. Fire management is a critical component in forest land management in Canada because fire has played a significant role in shaping Canada’s forest landscapes, especially in the boreal region (Weber and Flannigan, 1997). Numerous studies have revealed that many boreal tree species have adapted to environments with www.elsevier.com/locate/foreco Forest Ecology and Management 208 (2005) 319–329 * Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 780 435 7240; fax: +1 780 435 7359. E-mail address: cli@nrcan.gc.ca (C. Li). 0378-1127/$ – see front matter # 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2005.01.001