Trakia Journal of Sciences, Vol. 8, Suppl. 2, 2010
453
Trakia Journal of Sciences, Vol. 8, Suppl. 2, pp 453-465, 2010
Copyright © 2009 Trakia University
Available online at:
http://www.uni-sz.bg
ISSN 1313-7050 (print)
ISSN 1313-3551 (online)
DYNAMICS OF SOME BASIC DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS IN BULGARIA FOR
THE LAST CENTURY
G. Petkov
1*
, J. Marinova
2
, P. Chakarova
1
, Sv. Dimitrova
2
, G. Yordanov
3
, K. Peeva
2
,
B. Parashkevova
2
, G. Chamova
2
, V. Marinov
3
, J. Zdravkova
1
1
Children’s Clinic of the Medicine faculty, Trakia University, Stara Zagora, Bulgaria
2
Social Medicine and Health Management Department of the Medicine faculty, Trakia University,
Stara Zagora, Bulgaria
3
Ophthalmology Department of the Medicine faculty, Trakia University, Stara Zagora, Bulgaria
ABSTRACT
Purpose: to describe and analyze basic demographic indicators in the last century, to discuss the
opportunities for overcoming the present demographic crisis. Methods: Information from the
national health statistics and the regional office of WHO in Copenhagen for the past 100 years. A
descriptive analysis of the status and dynamics of basic demographic indicators in Bulgaria has been
done. Results: The demographic development in the beginning of the 20-th century reflects the
general tendencies resulting from the socio-economic development of the country, defining the
demographic transition and change in the pattern of the reproductive behaviour. Since the beginning
of the transition to market economy the long lasting tendency of decreasing child mortality rate has
been stopped. The indicator’s critical level is reached in 1997. A trend of decreasing child mortality
rate has been marked recently but it remains significantly higher in comparison with the average for
the EU countries. The dynamics of the indicators: birth rate, marriage rate, fertility, natural growth is
unfavourable in the recent decades. Towards the end of the period a slight improvement occurs in
the context of the severe aging of the population. The necessity of a clear concept of demographic
policy of the country focusing main directions is underlined.
Key words: demographic indicators, demographic crisis, birth rate, concept, growth, demographic
policy.
Current changes in the demographic status in
Bulgaria are raising certain concerns that
attract the attention of medical professionals of
different fields. Various indicators are used to
describe the demographic status. Among them
of great importance are the demographic ones.
They are topic of interest for us, due to their
influence over children’s health and role and
participation of pediatricians for its
improvement.
The purpose of our study is to track and
analyze some basic demographic indicators,
depicting the demographic status in Bulgaria
for the last century, and to discuss the changes
that overcome current demographic crisis (1, 2,
3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11).
______________________________
*Correspondence to: prof. Georgi Petkov
Address: Trakia University, Armejska 11, Medical
Faculty, e-mail: prof_petkov@abv.bg
MATERIALS AND METHODS
An official data supplied by National Health
Statistics:
- Annual indicators “Healthcare” – 1959-2008
(12);
- Health indicators of National Centre for
Health Informatics; basic demographic
indicators; National Statistical Institute (13,
14);
- Health indicators data base HFA of Regional
Bureau of WHO (15).
Using these sources an SPSS database is built
(16). It lacks some data for the first 4 decades
of XX-th century to be complete.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Child mortality rate: Child mortality rate
(infant deaths per 1000 live births) is
extremely sensitive indicator for assessing
population’s standard of living, effectiveness
and quality of undertaken measures – social
and political to ensure child’s well-being.