90 Int. J. Global Warming, Vol. 4, No. 2, 2012
Copyright © 2012 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.
Prediction of energy consumption of passenger
transportation and GHG emissions in Jordan
Jamal O. Jaber*
Faculty of Engineering Technology,
Al-Balqa’ Applied University,
P.O.Box:15008, Amman 11134, Jordan
E-mail: jojaber@gmail.com
*Corresponding author
Ahmed M. Al-Ghandoor
Depaertment of Industrial Engineering,
Hashemite University, P.O. Box: 150459,
Zarqa 13115, Jordan
E-mail: ghandoor@hu.edu.jo
Ismael Al-Hinti
Department of Mechatronics Engineering,
School of Applied Technical Science,
P.O. Box: 35247, Amman 11180,
German Jordanian University, Jordan
E-mail: ismael.hinti@gju.edu.jo
Salameh A. Sawallha
Faculty of Engineering,
Northern Border University,
P.O Box: 1321, Arar 91431, KSA
E-mail: sawalhasalameh80@yahoo.com
Abstract: In this paper, the structure of the Jordanian transport sector is analysed
with focus on passenger cars, which represent 65% of total vehicles and responsible
for almost all of the national gasoline fuel demand. In order to achieve the objectives
of this study, an empirical model is developed based on multivariate linear
regression analysis to identify key drivers that influence gasoline consumption. In
addition, possible impacts of introducing diesel powered saloon cars, as an energy
efficiency measure to the passenger cars market, on the future energy demand
and associated reduction in GHG emissions are analysed and evaluated using
different scenarios. Based on the conducted analysis, it was found that the number
of cars, income level and unit gasoline price are the most important variables that
affect present and future gasoline demand. The obtained results proved that the
multivariate linear regression models can be used adequately to simulate gasoline
consumption with very high coefficient of determination. Without the introduction
of diesel driven cars, gasoline consumption is expected to rise by approximately