I.J. Intelligent Systems and Applications, 2019, 9, 40-55
Published Online September 2019 in MECS (http://www.mecs-press.org/)
DOI: 10.5815/ijisa.2019.09.05
Copyright © 2019 MECS I.J. Intelligent Systems and Applications, 2019, 9, 40-55
Prediction of Water Demand Using Artificial
Neural Networks Models and Statistical Model
Mohammed Awad
Department of Computer Systems Engineering, Arab American University, Palestine
E-mail: mohammed.awad@aaup.edu
Mohammed Zaid-Alkelani
Department of Computer Science, Arab American University, Palestine
E-mail: mzeid@qou.edu
Received: 19 March 2019; Accepted: 09 May 2019; Published: 08 September 2019
Abstract—The prediction of future water demand will help
water distribution companies and government to plan the
distribution process of water, which impacts on sustainable
development planning. In this paper, we use a linear and
nonlinear models to predict water demand, for this purpose,
we will use different types of Artificial Neural Networks
(ANNs) with different learning approaches to predict the
water demand, compared with a known type of statistical
methods. The dataset depends on sets of collected data
(extracted from municipalities databases) during a specific
period of time and hence we proposing a nonlinear model
for predicting the monthly water demand and finally
provide the more accurate prediction model compared with
other linear and nonlinear methods. The applied models
capable of making an accurate prediction for water demand
in the future for the Jenin city at the north of Palestine. This
prediction is made with a time horizon month, depending
on the extracted data, this data will be used to feed the
neural network model to implement mechanisms and
system that can be employed to predicts a short-term for
water demands. Two applied models of artificial neural
networks are used; Multilayer Perceptron NNs (MLPNNs)
and Radial Basis Function NNs (RBFNNs) with different
learning and optimization algorithms Levenberg
Marquardt (LM) and Genetic Algorithms (GAs), and one
type of linear statistical method called Autoregressive
integrated moving average ARIMA are applied to the
water demand data collected from Jenin city to predict the
water demand in the future. The execution results appear
that the MLPNNs-LM type is outperformed the
RBFNN-GAs and ARIMA models in the prediction the
water demand values.
Index Terms—Prediction, Future Water Demand,
Multilayer Perceptron NNs, Levenberg Marquardt
Algorithm, Radial Basis Function NNs, Genetic
Algorithms, ARIMA.
I. INTRODUCTION
The majority of the countries in the Middle East are
suffering problems the increasing demand for water in light
of the scarcity of resources to obtain sufficient quantities
and satisfy the needs of citizens of different needs in
different fields [1]. In general, the water demand and
supply depends on the infrastructure of supply, distribution
systems, and future strategic plans that have the capacity to
meet the needs and sustain the success of the development
[2]. So we can describe the Water Demand Forecasting as a
total amount of used water, measured or predicted based on
a certain application to know the general trend of
consumption so as to evaluate the ability of existing
resources to meet future needs within a geographic area
and to provide the basis for planning future system and
improve it to limit the uncertainties for future demand. The
water sector is an important sector of sustainable
development at the national level. The high demand for
water and the significant gap between demand and supply
in the water sector is one of the major challenges facing the
sector over the next few years. The water demand is
increasing because of natural population growth and
national development requirements. This is a great
challenge, and it is necessary to find creative solutions to
supply the necessary quantities of water to different sectors
and achieve balance for supply optimal water in Palestine.
The existing models and applications that can predict the
water demand effectively is a useful element in strategic
planning and the processes of scheduling, maintenance [3].
Prediction strategies of water demand are very important to
support and help the water authorities and municipalities in
identifying future needs and to develop the necessary plans
to find real solutions. The water circumstance in northern
Palestine, such as the city of Jenin, is similar to the rest of
Palestine cities. But in Jenin city, there are more