Modeling the Economic Growth in Romania Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting –3/2008 115 MODELING THE ECONOMIC GROWTH IN ROMANIA. THE ROLE OF HUMAN CAPITAL Mois ă ALT Ă R ∗ Ciprian NECULA ∗∗ Gabriel BOBEICĂ ∗∗∗ Abstract The present study emphasizes the importance of human capital in economic growth. We simulate possible growth paths assuming that the Romanian economy behaves according to the hypothesis of the Uzawa-Lucas model. By calibrating the model to the Romanian economy, we are able to forecast the evolution of the Romanian GDP and the proportion of human capital which will be used in the production of goods and services. Although the population growth rate is considered to be zero, the average real GDP growth rate is around 6% due to the human capital accumulation, which improves the quality of labor. Keywords: endogenous economic growth, human capital, two-sector economy, path simulation, Uzawa-Lucas model JEL Classification: C15, C61, O41 Acknowledgements: Financial Support from PNCDI II Complex Projects Grant No. 91-071/2007 is gratefully acknowledged. 1. Introduction Worldwide, the subject of economic growth has nowadays a central place within social and economic sciences. Theoretical and empirical research focuses on two main issues: • To detect the mechanisms which ensure economic growth and to single out the role and the contribution of various factors to the growth process; • To establish the microeconomic and macroeconomic policies that would ensure sustainable long-term economic growth. ∗ Ph.D. Professor, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest; email: maltar@ase.ro ∗∗ Ph.D. Lecturer, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest; email: ciprian.necula@fin.ase.ro ∗∗∗ Ph.D. student, Assistant, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest; email: gabriel.bobeica@fin.ase.ro 7