International Research Journal of Engineering Science, Technology and Innovation (IRJESTI) Vol. 1(6) pp. 161-174, September 2012
Available online http://www.interesjournals.org/IRJESTI
Copyright © 2012 International Research Journals
Full Length Research Paper
Statistical and trend analyses of rainfall in Sokoto
Ismail
1
Abubakar and *Oke
2
Isaiah Adesola
1
Water Resources and Environmental Engineering Department, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Nigeria.
2
Civil Engineering Department, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria.
Accepted September 18, 2012
Sokoto is in the North West geopolitical zone of Nigeria. The major occupation of the people in this city
is farming, which depends on rainfalls. This article presents statistical and trend analyses of the rainfall
in Sokoto. Rainfall data in the city for a period of 1915- 2008 were collected from archives. The
existence of trend and sequence of rainfalls were established using non-parametric techniques. The
study revealed that overall averages of yearly and monthly total rainfall were 726±24.03 mm and
61.75±25.31 mm respectively. Yearly total, mean, maximum and minimum rainfalls have Mann-Whitney
of 42, 57, 67 and 37 between 1947and 1977 with 43, 66, 60 and 107 in the period between 1978 and 2008.
Sen.’s estimator revealed that there are significant upward trends for yearly total (10.08mm/year), yearly
mean (8.14 mm/year), maximum (6.84 mm/year) and minimum (10.72 mm/year) within a period of 1947 –
1977 and significant downward trends for yearly total (9.94mm/year), yearly mean (6.97 mm/year) and
maximum (7.75 mm/year) within a period of 1978 – 2008. It was concluded that there is a significant
downward trend in the yearly total and mean rainfalls at Sokoto in the last three decades (30years),
which can be attributed to climate change.
Keywords: Rainfall, Trend analysis, Statistical methods, Non-parametric techniques, upward trend.
INTRODUCTION
Climate change seems to be the foremost global
challenge facing humans at the moment. The scientific
community has not been left out as the causes and the
solutions climate change. One of the indicators of climate
change is increase or decrease in rainfall (Obot et al.,
2010). Rainfall is a climate parameter that affects the way
and manner man lives. It affects every facet of the
ecological system, flora and fauna inclusive. Globally, lots
of studies have been conducted on rainfall. Obot et al.
(2010) presented total amount of rainfall across Nigeria in
selected locations in each of the six geopolitical zones
within a 30 years period (1978-2007) and the study
reveals an increasing trend in only one out of the six
*Corresponding Author E-mails: abuismail1@yahoo.com;
okeia@oauife.edu.ng; aismail@abu.edu.ng
locations. Abaje et al. (2010) worked on an analysis of
rainfall trends in Kafanchan, Kaduna State, Nigeria. It
was stated that government policies in Nigeria should be
based on recent rainfall trends.
Sokoto is in Sokoto state, which is in North
West geopolitical zone of Nigeria. The state has a
population 3,696,999; population density of 133 people
per km
2
and catchment of 27,825 km
2
(Figure 1, Dada et
al., 2007). The climate is semiarid with a zone of
savannah-type vegetation as part of the sub-Saharan
Sudan belt of West Africa. Farming is the major
occupation in the place. It is well known that crop
production in semi-arid regions is largely determined by
climatic and soil factors. These show that a detailed
knowledge of rainfall regime is an important
prerequisite for agricultural planning and that there are
needs to obtain the trend of rainfall in the entire region in
Nigeria. The purpose of this study is to: characterize
trend of total amount of rainfall in Sokoto and sequence
of the rainfalls.