Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Climate Risk Management journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/crm The snow load in Europe and the climate change Pietro Croce a , Paolo Formichi a , Filippo Landi a , Paola Mercogliano b,c , Edoardo Bucchignani b,c , Alessandro Dosio d , Silvia Dimova e, ⁎ a Department of Civil and Industrial Engineering, University of Pisa, Largo Lucio Lazzarino 1, 56112 Pisa, Italy b C.I.R.A. – Italian Aerospace Research Center, Meteo Laboratory, Via Maiorise, 81043 Capua, CE, Italy c Fondazione CMCC – Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Regional Models and geo-Hydrological Impacts Division (REMHI), Via Maiorise, 81043 Capua, CE, Italy d European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Disaster Risk Management Unit, TP 267, Via E. Fermi 2749, Ispra, VA 21027, Italy e European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Safety and Security of Buildings Unit, TP 480, Via E. Fermi 2749, Ispra, VA 21027, Italy ARTICLE INFO Keywords: Climate change Snow load on structures Adaptation of structural design Climatic actions Prediction of snow load Design working life of structures European snow load map ABSTRACT It is often assumed that, as a consequence of global warming, a reduction of snow load on the ground should be expected. In reality, snow load is often depending on local orographic situa- tions that can determine an increase of its height, even when the average snow height over the surrounding areas is reduced. Large snow loads on roofs during the winter season of 2005–2006 led to over 200 roof collapses in Central Europe. To proceed with the adaptation of the European standards for important buildings and infrastructures to the implications of climate change, the expected changes in the climatic loading shall be assessed in terms of the Eurocodes concept for characteristic values of variable climatic actions. The paper presents a procedure for derivation of snow load on ground from data on daily temperatures and precipitation. In addition, it allows to derive the characteristic snow loads from climate change projections and thus to evaluate the future trends in variation of snow loading. Analysis of these trends for the Italian territory is performed by comparing the results for several subsequent time periods of thirty years, with those obtained for the reference period 1951–1980. Results presented show a significant increase in the snow loading for the period 1981–2010 in many regions in north and east Italy in com- parison with the reference period. It is suggested that a European project on snow load map shall be started, in order to help National Competent Authorities to redraft the national snow load maps for design with the Eurocodes. 1. Introduction The evidence of climate change is unequivocal and the consequences are increasingly being felt in Europe and worldwide. In particular, the mean global temperature, currently around 0.8 °C above the pre-industrial level, continues to rise, even more evidently in Europe (e.g. European Environment Agency, 2012). Climate change affects all regions of the world by alteration of natural processes, modification of precipitation patterns, melting of glaciers, rise of sea levels, etc. Whatever the warming scenarios and the level of success of mitigation policies, in the coming decades the impact of climate change needs to be considered, taking into account https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2018.03.001 Received 25 October 2017; Received in revised form 7 March 2018; Accepted 13 March 2018 ⁎ Corresponding author. E-mail address: silvia.dimova@ec.europa.eu (S. Dimova). Abbreviations: DWL, Design Working Life; ESLRP, European Snow Load Research Project; GCMs, Global Climate Models; GHG, Greenhouse Gases; IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; LSM, Least Square Method; MC, Monte Carlo (Simulations); PT, Project Team; RCMs, Regional Climate Models; SWE, Water Equivalent of the Snow Pack; RCPs, Representative Concentration Pathways; WRCP, World Climate Research Programmes Climate Risk Management 20 (2018) 138–154 Available online 24 March 2018 2212-0963/ © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/BY-NC-ND/4.0/). T