Riker and Federalism MIKHAIL FILIPPOV filippov@artsci.wustl.edu Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri, USA Abstract. Forty years since its publication, William Riker’s Federalism: Origin, Operation, Significance (1964) remains one of the most influential volumes on the politics of federalism. However, in assessing Riker’s federal theory, scholars tend to focus on the specific hypotheses, the famous claim that the ‘‘military threat’’ constitutes a necessary condition for federal success, and upon rejecting the validity of that claim, by association, quickly dismiss the general theoretical argument. But Riker’s federal theory does much more for our understanding of federalism as a form of government than simply connect, rightly or not, federal success with the presence of a military threat. In the paper I argue that the most innovative feature of Riker’s analysis, defining for his contribution to the field and accountable for the emergence of new and original insights was the successful application for the first time of the principle of methodological individualism to institutional and constitutional analysis. Riker’s theory of federalism, when viewed in the context of his intellectual contribution to the studies of democratic institutions, is, indeed, the original point of departure. In the paper, I review Riker’s theory of federalism as embedded in and an integral part of his broader theory of democratic institutions, in order to highlight some of its merits that remained underappreciated until current research has generated the conceptual framework consistent with Riker’s insights. Second, I draw some implications from Riker’s theory for the contemporary challenges of federal constitutional design. JEL classification: H77, K1 Keywords: federal theory, bargain, balance, safeguards, credible commitments Forty years since its publication, William Riker’s Federalism: Origin, Operation, Significance (1964) remains one of the most influential volumes on the politics of federalism. When it was first published, the book provoked sharp debates among the leading scholars of federalism, 1 and hardly any major study of federalism has failed to refer to it ever since. A large and growing number of studies use Riker’s book as the point of theoretical departure. Indeed, as Stepan (2085: 317) noticed, Riker is the scholar ‘‘who has most affected political science approaches to federalism’’ and it follows therefore that ‘‘we cannot progress too far without either building upon his arguments, or showing good reasons to refine or even reject his arguments.’’ Yet too often, in assessing Riker’s federal theory, scholars have focused on the specific hypotheses and concrete predictions (e.g., the famous claim that the ‘‘military threat’’ was a necessary condition for federal success), and, upon rejecting the validity of a specific claim, have, by association, quickly dismissed the general theoretical argument. Yet the goal of theory is to explain observable regularities as well as to generate testable predictions, and the rejection of some predictions in their concrete formulations is not a sufficient reason for the rejection of all explanations Constitutional Political Economy, 16, 93–111, 2005. Ó 2005 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc. Manufactured in The Netherlands.