Public Choice 111: 73–104, 2002.
© 2002 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Printed in the Netherlands.
73
Russian voting and the initial economic shock of hyperinflation
MIKHAIL G. FILIPPOV
Political Science Department, Washington University, St. Louis, MO 63130, U.S.A.;e-mail:
filippov@artsci.wustl.edu
Accepted 9 October 2000
Abstract. This paper addresses the issue of economic voting in transitional democracies using
data from the Russian federal elections. It argues that the shock of inflation that followed the
fundamental economic reform has a lasting influence on voters. Specifically, it shows that in
Russia, where inflationary policy led to hyperinflation and the widespread loss of personal
savings, the magnitude of savings lost at that time continues to explain a significant portion of
the variation in the regional support for the Communist party in parliamentary and presidential
elections.
1. Introduction
The effect of the economic conditions on the vote is generally recognized to
be important,
1
with the economy influencing the vote in two ways. First, there
is a long-term correspondence between fundamental economic changes and
partisan alignment and realignment (Bloom and Price, 1975). For example,
The American Voter indicates that the age cohorts entering the electorate in
the 1930s, following the economic crash, contained about 10% more demo-
cratic identifiers than the cohorts that entered the electorate in the 1920s
(Campbell et al., 1960: 154). Second, the body of evidence clearly suggests
that short-term macroeconomic fluctuations also affect electoral outcomes.
The statistical connection between the short-term economic changes and the
vote is found both at the aggregate level – across countries, regions and
electoral districts – as well as through the survey research at the individual
level.
2
Studies of voting behavior view economic voting as an instrumental act to
either reward or punish political incumbents. Together with party identifica-
tion, retrospective and prospective evaluations of government policies define
individual voting decisions. Party identification representing the voter’s ini-
tial bias or predisposition toward the competing parties and candidates can
itself be viewed as a product of cumulative voter reactions over time (Fior-
ina, 1981). According to the sociotropic voting thesis of Kinder and Kiewiet
(1979), voters do not simply respond to their personal economic self-interest