Turkish Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 18: 995-1003 (2018) www.trjfas.org ISSN 1303-2712 DOI: 10.4194/1303-2712-v18_8_08 RESEARCH PAPER © Published by Central Fisheries Research Institute (CFRI) Trabzon, Turkey in cooperation with Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), Japan Predicted Changes in Climatic Niche of Alburnus Species (Teleostei: Cyprinidae) in Iran Until 2050 Introduction The geographic distribution of a species is a function of biotic, abiotic and movement factors that of which climate is a major factor delimiting species’ distribution (Fei et al., 2012; Engler, Rödder, Elle, Hochkirch, & Secondi, 2013). Climate change is known to affect range contractions and expansions of numerous plants, animals and other organisms (see Walls, 2009) including freshwater fishes throughout the world especially in the Middle East. Anthropogenic treats (e.g. changes in land use, habitat destruction, fish introductions, dam construction, pollution and drought) have played a significant role in changing distribution pattern of Iranian freshwater fishes especially in the past few decades (Esmaeili et al., 2015). With the frequency of droughts in many parts of Iran in recent years (Teimori, Mostafavi, & Esmaeili, 2016), its impact on freshwater fishes will likely increase in coming years and will have effects on their phenology, productivity and distribution. The genus Alburnus Rafinesque, 1820 belongs to the largest teleost family, Cyprinidae, comprising 45 valid described species distributed from Europe to northern parts of southwest Asia including Iran (Freyhof & Kottelat, 2007a,b; Özuluğ & Freyhof, 2007; Elp, Sen, & Özuluğ, 2015). The genus Alburnus is an excellent example of high diversity and endemism in the western Palearctic freshwater fishes particularly in Turkey with 24 species, of which 15 are endemic (Elp et al., 2015; Gülle, Küçük, & Güçlü, 2017). Eight species of bleaks of the genus Alburnus are recorded from Iran including Alburnus doriae De Filippi, 1865 from the Namak Lake basin; A. chalcoides (Güldenstädt, 1772) from the Caspian Sea basin (Freyhof, & Kottelat, 2008; Esmaeili, Coad, Gholamifard, Nazari, & Teimory, 2010; Esmaeili et al., 2014); A. filippii Kessler, 1877 from the Kura- Aras basin and Sefid-Rud River (see Freyhof, 2014 for more details); A. hohenackeri Kessler, 1877 from the Aras River to the Atrek River along the Caspian coast of Iran (Esmaeili et al., 2010, 2014); A. atropatenae Berg, 1925 from the Lake Urmia (=Lake Orumiyeh) basin; A. caeruleus Heckel, 1843 from Qweik, Euphrates and Tigris drainages from southern Anatolia to Iraq and Iran; A. sellal Heckel, 1843 from Tigris Euphrates system, and some other freshwater systems of the Persian Gulf basin; A. zagrosensis Coad, 2009 from the upper Karun River basin. As the Alburnus spp. are distributed in many drainage basins Hamid Reza Esmaeili 1, *, Ali Gholamhosseini 1 , Tooba Mohammadian-Kalat 2 , Mansour Aliabadian 2,3 1 Shiraz University, Ichthyology Research Lab., College of Sciences, Department of Biology, Shiraz, Iran. 2 Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Faculty of Sciences, Department of Biology, Mashhad, Iran. 3 Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Faculty of Sciences, Institute of Applied Zoology, Research Department of Zoological Innovations (RDZI), Mashhad, Iran. * Corresponding Author: Tel.: +98.711 2280916; Fax: +98.711 2280926; E-mail: hresmaeili@shirazu.ac.ir; hresmaeili22@gmail.com Received 16 October 2017 Accepted 20 November 2017 Abstract Distribution ranges of many organisms are changing in response to global climate change and human activities. To test the impact of climatic change on distribution range of cyprinid fish species, Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) was used to predict the current climatically suitable habitats and to identify key variables shaping the potential distribution for the genus Alburnus in Iran, an excellent example of high diversity and endemism in the western Palearctic region. Then, future changes in potential suitable areas of the genus Alburnus were evaluated with one future global climatic model (GCM) based on 2050 climatic projection. Results show as a general pattern, basins along the Elburz and Zagros Mountains had highest climatic suitability for the genus in Iran. According to the results of jackknife test and percent contribution of each variable to construct the models, precipitation plays the important role on the distribution of Alburnus species in Iran than temperature. Model outputs show all species likely to be negatively affected by the climate change in future and the currently potential suitable areas were predicted to decrease in the coming decades, suggesting a comprehensive management plan for conservation of this cyprinid fish need to be conducted in the country. Keywords: Cyprinidae, niche modeling, freshwater fishes, global warming.