Comparative Political Studies
43(7) 886–917
© The Author(s) 2010
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DOI: 10.1177/0010414010361343
http://cps.sagepub.com
Methodology Forum
Informative Regress:
Critical Antecedents in
Comparative Politics
Dan Slater
1
and Erica Simmons
1
Abstract
How can political scientists best uncover historical causation without
committing infinite regress? This article introduces a revised framework for
historical analysis that can help systematically capture the deepest causal
factors in political development. It improves on the familiar “critical juncture”
framework by specifying the precise causal or noncausal status of the
“antecedent conditions” preceding critical junctures. After disaggregating
antecedent conditions into four logical types, the authors argue that
scholars should be especially mindful of critical antecedents: factors or
conditions preceding a critical juncture that combine in a causal sequence
with factors operating during that juncture to produce divergent outcomes.
Through analytic reviews of a wide array of major works, the authors
illustrate how critical antecedents can clarify causal claims and enhance
knowledge accumulation in comparative politics.
Keywords
comparative historical analysis, historical causation, critical junctures, antecedent
conditions, qualitative methods, political development
More slowly and less surely than some of its sister disciplines, political sci-
ence has been undergoing a “historic turn.”
1
Political scientists increasingly
recognize that our biggest “why” questions cannot be adequately answered
1
University of Chicago, Chicago, IL
Corresponding Author:
Dan Slater, University of Chicago, Department of Political Science, Chicago, IL 60637
Email: slater@uchicago.edu