Introduction This book has attempted to capture a range of ideas from different specialist disciplines, the data appropriate to these disciplines, and current knowledge of the Okavango River basin. These may all be used to develop a baseline on which future institutional and policy-related developments can be structured. It can thus be considered as an audit of the current state-of-the-art multidisciplinary knowledge on management issues confronting the Permanent Okavango River Basin Water Commission (OKACOM). The book started off by proposing three hypotheses. These hypotheses were discussed in some detail, and it was suggested that they could help to interpret the contents of the book. It was also suggested that the hypotheses could be tested to a certain extent, and refined where relevant, by means of the empirical nature of the case study material provided in chapters 2 to 15. What remains to be done is to assess the three hypotheses against the information provided by the case studies, as a first attempt to develop a model that can identify the underlying hydropolitical drivers, and possibly explain (or even predict) the probable future outcome. This output will then be offered to the next phase of the process, which is to commence with a more detailed hydropolitical assessment of the Okavango River basin in order to inform the process of policy formulation by the three riparian states concerned. An assessment of the three hypotheses The logic of this book is based on three hypotheses that were developed because of the lack of adequate hydropolitical theory. The primary purpose of the three hypotheses is to introduce more scientific rigour into the evaluation of case studies, with a view to refining the hypotheses for future use in Southern Africa and elsewhere. First hypothesis: Southern African hydropolitical complex This book has shown that a wide variety of factors are brought to bear on riparian states in managing transboundary river basins such as the Okavango. This is particularly relevant where some of the riparian states rely heavily on a given river 353 CHAPTER 16 Hydropolitical drivers and policy challenges in the Okavango River basin Anthony Turton, Peter Ashton and Eugene Cloete