Article An exposure assessment model of the prevalence of Salmonella spp. along the processing stages of Brazilian beef Ursula Gonzales-Barro ´n 1 , Luciana Piza 2 , Cristina Xavier 1 , Ernane Costa 2 and Vasco Cadavez 1 Abstract Beef cattle carrying Salmonella spp. represents a risk for contamination of meat and meat products. This study aimed to build an exposure assessment model elucidating the changes in Salmonella prevalence in Brazilian beef along the processing stages. To this effect, the results of a number of published studies reporting Salmonella incidences were assembled in order to model conversion factors based on beta distri- butions representing the effect of every production stage on the Salmonella incidence on beef carcasses. A random-effects meta-analysis modelled the hide-to-carcass transfer of Salmonella contamination. The Monte Carlo simulation estimated the Salmonella prevalence in beef cuts from processing plants to be 6.1% (95% CI: 1.4–17.7%), which was in reasonable agreement with a pool (n ¼ 105) of surveys’ data of Salmonella in Brazilian beef cuts (mean 4.9%; 95% CI: 1.8–11.5%) carried out in commercial establishments. The results not only underscored the significant increase in Salmonella prevalence that can occur during evisceration/splitting and boning but also reinforced that, when hygienic slaughter procedures are properly implemented, the load of Salmonella can be reduced at dehiding, rinsing and chilling. As the model was based on a systematic review and meta-analysis, it synthesised all available knowledge on the incidence of Salmonella in Brazilian beef. Keywords Simulation, meta-analysis, systematic review, slaughterhouse, beef cuts Date received: 6 May 2014; revised: 1 September 2014; accepted: 21 October 2014 INTRODUCTION Foodborne salmonellosis is a major public health issue in all countries and requires concerted efforts to prevent and control the pathogen in the food supply. In Brazil, a remarkable increase in salmonellosis has been reported. According to the Sanitary Surveillance of the Brazilian Department of Health, from a total of 6791 reported foodborne outbreaks occurring during 1999 to 2010 in Brazil, 46% of them were caused by Salmonella spp., red meat being the vehicle in 12% of the outbreaks occurred during the same period (SVS, 2011). On the other hand, since 2005, Brazil has become one of the top producers of beef meat in the world with one of the highest annual export rates of over 1.5 mil- lions of tons, which in 2010, represented a share of US$4.1 billion to the national economy (ABIEC, 2011). Due to its importance in the international market, the quality and safety of Brazilian beef have to meet 1 CIMO Mountain Research Centre, School of Agriculture (ESA), Polytechnic Institute of Braganza (IPB), Braganza, Portugal 2 Faculty of Animal Science, University of Sa ˜o Paulo, Sa ˜o Paulo, Brazil Corresponding author: Ursula Gonzales-Barron, CIMO Mountain Research Centre, School of Agriculture (ESA), Polytechnic Institute of Braganza (IPB), Campus de Santa Apolo ´nia, Apartado 1172, 5301-854 Braganza, Portugal. Email: ubarron@ipb.pt Food Science and Technology International 22(1) 10–20 ! The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav DOI: 10.1177/1082013214560446 fst.sagepub.com