23 rd International Conference on Electricity Distribution Lyon, 15-18 June 2015 Paper 1308 CIRED 2015 1/5 HYBRID FORECASTING TECHNIQUES APPLIED TO DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS FOR PROACTIVE VOLTAGE CONTROL Enoque Dutra GARCIA Luciane Neves CANHA Paulo Ricardo PEREIRA CERTAJA / UFSM – Brazil UFSM – Brazil UFSM – Brazil enoquedg@gmail.com lucianecanha@ufsm.br prpereira@unisinos.br ABSTRACT The concept of smart grids make a revolution on the form of operate electrical system. Among the consequences will change the behavior of electricity customers. Regulatory agencies increase their requirements for power quality indices. Thus, the electric utility will seek new alternatives to act in this scenario. In this sense, this paper present a Hybrid Methodology for Forecasts of Electrical Quantities (HMFEQ), that provides new alternatives to the proactive control of VOLT/VAR. The obtained results for application of HMFEQ in one distribution system with one Distributed Generation (DG) are satisfactory. INTRODUCTION The complexity of the operation of the Electric Power Systems (EPS) is growing, as well as the necessity of optimization of the energetic resources. On the other hand, the technological revolution that allows innovative solutions, mainly through the tools based on the computational intelligence. In operational terms, considers up that EPS is in conditions of normality. Always of the evaluation parameters related to: frequency, stability, loading and voltage control are set on admissible bands. In front of the actual technology evolution, the corrective actions, always that is possible, have to be replaced by the proactive actions. For this, is necessary that the dynamic operation of the EPS recurs to the advanced solutions, which consider the forecast resources of quantity electrical Generally, the voltage is a quantity that is explained by the difference of potential between two or more elements of a circuit, however to the operation control in the systems of transmission and distribution is necessary to explore many features related to the behavior of that quantity. The voltage drop along the feeders is related to the circulation of electric current, therefore the potency that corresponds to the loading of an electrical system in a determined instant. Beyond of the load, the behavior of the voltage is related to the reactive flow. The research showed in this paper focus on the forecast in the short term, on the horizon of 10 minutes. In addition to predict values the methodology proposed present alternatives to the decision making about proactive actions that reduce the transgressions of the appropriate voltage ranges, by consequent, avoid infringement of regulated indicators and fine reductions.n this context, the present paper shows News alternatives to the control of VOLT/VAR considering the proactive actions based in HMFEQ. QUANTITIES FORECAST AND THE VOLTAGE CONTROL The future knowledge by times is treated whit superstition, however in the areas of exact sciences the forecast information are used to optimize processes. In scope of Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI), Outage Management System (OMS) and Active Distribution Systems Management (ADMS) it’s possible to operate proactively. Currently the obtained information by the system of control and data acquisition (SCADA) are important, and whit the implantation of the Smart Grids will occur changes on the form to plan and operate the distribution system [1-2]. In this way it’s important the realization of innovative studies that allows realize quantities forecasts whit this new model in the electric sector, actually that is important the estimate to the take of decisions in several segments of the distribution system [3-4]. The Figure 1 illustrate the possibilities of applications of the forecast and shows the main elements of the chain related to the forecast of quantities, consequently the aspect of energy quality trough forecast of voltage related to the possibilities of operate about control devices. Figure 1 - Elements related to the alternative forecast