Strategies 30 FoReSighT-RuSSiA vol. 8 no 2 2014 Foresight in Civil Shipbuilding — 2030 yuri Dekhtyaruk, igor Karyshev, Maria Korableva, natalia velikanova, Anastasia edelkina, oleg Karasev, Marina Klubova, Anna Bogomolova, natalia Dyshkant Yuri Dekhtyaruk — Head of Division. E-mail: krylov@krylov.spb.ru Igor Karyshev — Head of Division. E-mail: krylov@krylov.spb.ru Maria Korableva — Research Fellow. E-mail: krylov@krylov.spb.ru Krylov State Research Centre Address: 44 Moscow highway, 196158, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation Keywords Anna Bogomolova — Head of Laboratory, Faculty of Economics. E-mail: macro@econ.msu.ru Natalia Dyshkant — Senior Researcher, Research Computing Center. E-mail: natalia.dyshkant@gmail.com Moscow State University Address: 1, Building 46, Lenskiye Gory, GSP-1, Moscow, 119991, Russian Federation Natalia Velikanova — Senior Research Fellow. E-mail: nvelikanova@hse.ru Anastasia Edelkina — Research Fellow. E-mail: aedelkina@hse.ru Oleg Karasev — Deputy Director, International Research and Educational Foresight Center. E-mail: okarasev@hse.ru Marina Klubova — Expert. E-mail: mklubova@hse.ru National Research University — Higher School of Economics, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge Address: National Research University — Higher School of Economics, 20 Myasnitskaya str., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation Foresight studies of future markets and tech- nologies enable various scenarios for the ship- building industry to be identified. Innovative scenarios assume a shift from mass production to small-scale or even single-unit niche production under diversified demand. This should be accompanied by active promo- tion of competition not only in shipbuilding but in related industries too. Comparative analysis of scenarios shows that active government policies to support the production of high-technology vessels will generate multiplier effects and strengthen the competitiveness of the Russian economy. Citation: Dekhtyaruk Y., Karyshev I., Korableva M., Velikanova N., Edelkina A., Karasev O., Klubova M., Bogomolova A., Dyshkant N. (2014) Foresight in Civil Shipbuilding — 2030. Foresight-Russia, vol. 8, no 2, pp. 30–45 shipbuilding; emerging markets; innovative technologies; Foresight; technological forecasting; global challenges; scenarios