American Journal of Scientific Research
ISSN 2301-2005 Issue 67 (2012), pp. 59-75
© EuroJournals Publishing, Inc. 2012
http://www.eurojournals.com/ajsr.htm
"Myth of Abnormal Returns:
Evidence from UK’s Mutual Funds”
M. Jibran Sheikh
COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Islamabad, Pakistan
E-mail: Jibransheikh@comsats.edu.pk
Nabila Nazir
COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Islamabad, Pakistan
E-mail: Nabila@comsats.edu.pk
Waheed Iqbal
COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Islamabad, Pakistan
E-mail: Waheed.iqbal@comsats.edu.pk
Abstract
This study employs all major widely-used performance measurement techniques to
assess the fund managers’ forecasting skills using a sample data of 50 U.K. mutual funds
selected on random bases. Their returns from t 01/1990 to 31/2008 were used for
hypotheses testing. While Financial Times All Share Index and London T-Bills monthly
rates were taken as a benchmark. However, regression techniques forwarded by Jensen
(1968) and Treynor & Mazuy (1966) based on CAPM framework are applied along with
Appraisal Ratio,Treynor’s Ratio, Sharpe Measure, Sharpe Alt. Ratio, Modigliani & Mod.
Measure and Fama Decomposition to further validate our findings.
Our study found that only 20% of mutual fund managers possessed stock picking
abilities. These results were based upon Treynor & Mazuy (1966) regression estimates. Our
results were consistent with those of Kon (1983) and Henriksson (1984) with respect to
b1and b3 regression estimates, i.e. negative correlation existed between trade-off (stock
selection) and market timing abilities of managers. These findings suggest that, on average,
mutual funds produced 0.81% less returns than FT All share index annually.
Keywords: Efficient market hypothesis, Jensen Alpha, Treynor & Mazuy, Gamma
measure, market timing ability.
I. Introduction
THE proposition of efficient market hypothesis plays a vital role in maintaining the security prices a
continuous equilibrium level and any departure from this equilibrium will create the possibility to
produce abnormal returns. Therefore, if the stock prices are in ‘equilibrium’ it is not possible to
outperform the market by choosing the undervalued stocks or even to predict the future market
movements so that changing the composition (risk) of the portfolio could generate superior returns.
The exponential growth in numbers of mutual funds and their significant role in global stock markets
have raised concerns about the fundamental continuous equilibrium state of efficient market theory.