Vol:.(1234567890)
French Politics (2019) 17:50–63
https://doi.org/10.1057/s41253-019-00083-9
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Generational and life‑cycle efects on support for Quebec
independence
Yannick Dufresne
1
· Charles Tessier
2
· Eric Montigny
1
Published online: 14 February 2019
© Springer Nature Limited 2019
Abstract
The resurgence of separatist movements in Scotland and Catalonia illuminate the
ebb and fow of such movements over time. The catalysts of separatism in post-
industrial democracies are largely treated as circumstantial, but intergenerational
data on attitudes towards independence might assist the development of a general
theory of support for separatism. This replace draws on the case of Quebec, lever-
aging a half-century worth of public opinion data to investigate intergenerational
shifts in attitudes towards separatism. Historical data from the Canadian Election
Study (CES 1968–2011) allow us to test the relationship between attitudes towards
independence among youth in Quebec and general levels of support for separatism.
Coupled with this are the more than 1 million observations from the 2011 Canadian
federal as well as the 2012 and 2014 Quebec provincial editions of Vote Compass.
This last dataset allows us to estimate the variation in support for Quebec independ-
ence for very precise age groups defned at the year-of-birth level. The results show
a clear generational cycle variation that appears correlated with specifc series of
historical events.
Keywords Quebec separatism · Generations efects · Public opinion · Political
socialization · Canada · Electoral behaviour
* Yannick Dufresne
yannick.dufresne@pol.ulaval.ca
Charles Tessier
info@charles-tessier.com
Eric Montigny
eric.montigny@pol.ulaval.ca
1
Université Laval, Quebec City, Canada
2
McGill University, Montreal, Canada