Intelligence Failure and Need for Cognitive Closure: On the Psychology of the Yom Kippur Surprise Uri Bar-Joseph Division of International Relations, Department of Political Science University of Haifa Arie W. Kruglanski Department of Psychology University of Maryland, College Park This paper uses newly available evidence to shed light on the circumstances and causes of the 6 October 1973 Yom Kippur surprise attack of Egyptian and Syrian forces on Israeli positions at the Suez Canal and the Golan Heights. The evidence suggests that an impor- tant circumstance that accounts for the surprise effect these actions managed to produce, despite ample warning signs, is traceable to a high need for cognitive closure among major figures in the Israeli intelligence establishment. Such a need may have prompted leading intelligence analysts to “freeze” on the conventional wisdom that an attack was unlikely and to become impervious to information suggesting that it was imminent. The discussion considers the psychological forces affecting intelligence operations in predicting the initi- ation of hostile enemy activities, and it describes possible avenues of dealing with the psychological impediments to open-mindedness that may pervasively characterize such circumstances. KEY WORDS: Yom Kippur war, strategic surprise, need for cognitive closure Along with the German attack against the Soviet Union in June 1941 (oper- ation “Barbarossa”) and the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor in December 1941, the coordinated Egyptian-Syrian attack against Israel on Yom Kippur, 6 October 1973, is considered a classic example of a successful surprise attack and a costly intelligence failure. The similarity of the three cases is obvious: Despite ample evidence concerning the ability and the intention of the initiator to launch an attack, the intelligence agencies involved failed to provide a timely and accurate warning. Expert analyses of the three cases, however, tend to impute them to dif- Political Psychology, Vol. 24, No. 1, 2003 0162-895X © 2003 International Society of Political Psychology Published by Blackwell Publishing. Inc., 350 Main Street, Malden, MA 02148, USA, and 9600 Garsington Road, Oxford, OX4 2DQ 75