Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting – 1/2009 5 REGIONAL ECONOMIC VOTING IN ROMANIA Dorin JULA * Nicolae-Marius JULA ** Abstract In the paper we examine the economic voting theory for the Romanian local elections in June, 2008. Econometrically, we demonstrate that in the regional structures the main economic variables (dynamics of the gross domestic product per capita, rate of unemployment, dynamics of the average net nominal monthly earnings, etc.) do not significantly influence the voting behaviour, so that a model based on the responsibility hypothesis is not adequate for explaining the creation of voting preferences in the Romanian regional structures in the June 2008 elections. We also demonstrate that for the June 2008 local elections the hypothesis of partisan voting cannot be econometrically supported. As a consequence, we have conceived a political impact model. Therefore, we have tested the hypothesis of faithful voters between two consecutive electoral moments, the engine role played by the well-known leaders, and the impact of the ethnic behaviour on the electoral space of the political party. Key words: Political Business Cycles, Vote Popularity Function, Partisan and/or Opportunistic Behaviour, Residuals in Regional Econometric Models JEL Classification: C31, C33, D72, O18 1. Theoretical background Connections between economy and politics appear in economic literature with two aspects: (1) Political business cycles; (2) Theory of economic voting. The political business cycle can be seen as a business cycle that results (a) from the manipulation of policy tools (fiscal policy, monetary policy) by incumbent politicians with the hope to stimulate the economy just prior to an election and, thereby, to improve greatly their own and their party's re-election chances or (b) from the competition amongst political parties with different ideologies. On that account, the theory of * Ph.D., Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy and Ecological University of Bucharest – Economic Sciences Faculty, dorinjula@yahoo.fr ** Ph.D. Student, Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy and Ecological University of Bucharest – Economic Sciences Faculty, mariusjula@yahoo.com 1.