Using Small Models for Big Issues: Exploratory System Dynamics Modelling and Analysis for Insightful Crisis Management Erik Pruyt – E.Pruyt@tudelft.nl Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management; Delft University of Technology P.O. Box 5015, 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands – E-mail: e.pruyt@tudelft.nl 11 June 2010 * Abstract The main goal of this paper is to explain and illustrate different exploratory uses of small System Dynamics models for analysis and decision support in case of dynamically complex issues that are deeply uncertain. The applied focuss of the paper is the field of inter/national safety and security. The need for exploratory approaches is first of all discussed. Different exploratory System Dynamics approaches are then briefly introduced. Thirdly, a typology of safety and security issues/crises –in terms of degrees of complexity, uncertainty and urgency– is proposed. Dif- ferent types of inter/national safety and security issues for which exploratory analyses may be useful are listed too. And the application of these exploratory approaches is subsequently illustrated on some of these issues, more precisely on (i) an acute micro-prudential financial crisis (the concerted run on the DSB Bank), (ii) an imminent A(H1N1)v flu crisis, and (iii) plausible mineral/metal scarcity crises. The paper ends with conclusions, lessons learned, and a discussion of future work. Keywords: Exploratory System Dynamics, Exploratory Modelling and Analysis, Cri- sis Management, Safety and Security, ESDMA 1 Introduction 1.1 The Need for Improving Exploratory & Analytical Capabilities Governments and agencies are, on the one hand, supposed to be able to cope with serious safety and security threats/crises of ever different kinds (acute and smoldering, short term and long term, global and local), and ever higher degrees of complexity, uncertainty, and interconnectedness. Governments and agencies realise, on the other hand, that they cannot possibly build specific capabilities and capacities for dealing with each and every imaginable risk or crisis. Full-hazard risk analyses like the Dutch National Risk Assessment (Bergmans, van der Horst, Janssen, Pruyt, et al. 2009) (Pruyt and Wijnmalen 2010) (Rademaker 2008) therefore often direct towards building generic capabilities –capabilities that can be used for different sorts of risks or crisis situations. A generic capability that often needs to be improved –especially for dealing with complex and uncertain crises– is the analytical capability to develop useful insights and support policymaking. The more complex and uncertain safety and security issues become, the more im- portant this capability becomes. It may be crucial –especially in inter/national safety and security * Published as: Pruyt, E. 2010. Using Small Models for Big Issues: Exploratory System Dynamics Modelling and Analysis for Insightful Crisis Management. Proceedings of the 18th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, 25-29 July 2010, Seoul, Korea. (Available online at http://www.systemdynamics.org.) 1