Techno-economic and environmental risk analysis for advanced marine propulsion systems G. Doulgeris a , T. Korakianitis b,⇑ , P. Pilidis a , E. Tsoudis a a Department of Power and Propulsion, Cranfield University, Bedfordshire MK43 0AL, UK b Parks College of Engineering, Aviation and Technology, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO 63103, USA article info Article history: Received 30 August 2011 Received in revised form 26 March 2012 Accepted 16 April 2012 Available online 22 May 2012 Keywords: Economic Techno-economic Marine Propulsion Gas turbine Environmental abstract A Techno-economic, Environmental and Risk Analysis (TERA) computational method has been developed for marine propulsion systems. The method comprises several numerical models which simulate the life cycle operation of marine gas turbines installed on marine vessels. Using a system-of-systems approach, the effect of operational profile can be taken into consideration in the assessment of a novel prime mover. Stochastic estimates of the powerplant’s life cycle net present cost are generated. The ship performance model plays a central role in the TERA method. This is an integrated virtual marine vessel operating envi- ronment that allows the calculation of engine performance and exhaust emissions (nitric oxide (NO x ), carbon monoxide CO, carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and unburned hydrocarbon (UHC)) for a given trip. The life of the gas turbine is assessed through a creep-life prediction method, which plays a significant role on the maintenance cost calculation in the economic model. The economic model predicts net present cost over the operating life of the vessel using stochastic analysis of the earning capacity of the ship powered by the chosen prime mover. The TERA simulation of a 25 MW marine gas turbine powering a RoPax fast ferry in an integrated full electric propulsion system is presented as an illustration of the method. The example includes aspects of the systemic analysis of engine and ship performance, accompanied by envi- ronmental effect and engine life prediction, coupled with an economic feasibility stochastic study of the selected propulsion system under several journey and economic scenarios. Ó 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction Efficient non-polluting energy use and global warming trends are an increasing global concern. Even though the accurate predic- tion of the effect of fossil-fuel combustion emissions on global warming is still the subject of ongoing research, global legislative measures and research efforts to reduce engine exhaust emissions are a dominant concern. In this direction the International Mari- time Organization extended the MARPOL convention towards low- er emissions from sea-going vessels with amendments (Tier II/III) on MARPOL Annex VI that have been adopted on the 10th of October 2008 [1]. Moreover, studies such as [2,3] have shown that ship emissions (CO 2 , NO x , CO) are expected to play a dominant role in future maritime regulations. As discussed in [2,3] several techni- cal measures can be taken towards reducing emissions, such as voyage optimisation, optimisation of hull shape and propeller, optimal maintenance, etc. The adoption of Integrated Full Electric Propulsion (IFEP) serves the same purpose. In multi-unit prime-mover configurations the IFEP configuration limits the required number of power generation units, with evident operational and economical benefits. It enables the propulsion system to operating in optimum efficiency even un- der part load, by cross-connecting the power shafts. However, the most significant role, when considering low emissions, is played by the overall efficiency of the powerplant. The drawback of lower thermal efficiency of simple-cycle gas turbine can be overcome by developing novel GT cycles and optimizing for marine applications, with some examples being the implementation of recuperation [4– 8] or intercooling and recuperation [9,10]. Such improvements can be achieved by the implementation of novel gas turbines replacing the traditional diesels, because of the novel cycle gas turbine’s abil- ity of providing low NO x along with low CO 2 emissions. In an emission and cost constrained world, a holistic approach is required for the assessment and optimization of marine propulsion systems. Such an approach should take into consideration techni- cal, economic, environmental and risk aspects, similar to those successfully used in aerospace applications [11–13]. This paper presents the implementation of such a Techno- economic and Environmental Risk Analysis (TERA) platform for marine propulsion. To our knowledge such a model has not been published before. This novel model is applied to the assessment 0306-2619/$ - see front matter Ó 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2012.04.026 ⇑ Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 314 977 8231. E-mail address: korakianitis@alum.mit.edu (T. Korakianitis). Applied Energy 99 (2012) 1–12 Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect Applied Energy journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/apenergy