“Mircea cel Batran” Naval Academy Scientific Bulletin, Volume XX – 2017 – Issue 1 The journal is indexed in: PROQUEST / DOAJ / Crossref / EBSCOhost / INDEX COPERNICUS / DRJI / OAJI / JOURNAL INDEX / I2OR / SCIENCE LIBRARY INDEX / Google Scholar / Academic Keys/ ROAD Open Access / Academic Resources / Scientific Indexing Services / SCIPIO / JIFACTOR MODELLING OF TURKISH MARITIME TRANSPORTATION FLEET’S EMISSIONS AND REFERENCE ENERGY SYSTEM Aydin TOKUSLU 1a Egemen SULUKAN 2 Murat Kagan KOZANHAN 2 Dogus ÖZKAN 3 Volkan DEMIR 4 Erinc DOBRUCALI 5 1 PhD Candidate, Institute of Marine Sciences and Management, Istanbul University, Istanbul, Turkey 2 Capt (N) PhD, Turkish Naval Academy, National Defense University, Istanbul, Turkey 3 LtCdr (N) PhD, Turkish Naval Academy, National Defense University, Istanbul, Turkey 4 Asst. Prof. PhD Eng, Institute of Marine Sciences and Management, Istanbul University, Istanbul, Turkey 5 Asst. Prof. PhD Eng, Turkish Naval Academy, National Defense University, Istanbul, Turkey a Corresponding Author, e-mail: atokuslu@dho.edu.tr Abstract: Maritime transportation is the most environmentally-friendly mode of transport with respect to air and road transport and considered as a safe system for years. This form of transportation is increasing due to the globalization of manufacturing processes and the increase of global-scale trade. However, maritime transport is seen as an important source of emissions worldwide. Maritime shipping produces an estimated 2.7% of the world’s CO 2 emissions, there are also other emissions from ships respectively NOx, SOx, CO, HC, VOC and particulate matter (PM). All these emissions threat people’s health, life quality and environment. For that reason, ship based emissions have to be analized carefully. Following this target, this paper is concerned with the optimal fuel consumption pattern focusing on Turkish Maritime Transport Fleet emissions within the next 40 years (up to 2050). Using MARKAL (an acronym for MARKet ALlocation) Maritime Transportation model, various steps as designing of ‘‘Reference Energy System (RES)’’ of the model, data processing and prepare of scenario are followed. Key words: emission, maritime, fleet, model, MARKAL. Introduction Maritime transportation is the most environmentally-friendly mode of transport with respect to air and road transport and considered as a safe system for years. This form of transportation is increasing due to the globalization of manufacturing processes and the increase of global-scale trade. However, maritime transport is seen as an important source of emissions worldwide. International Maritime Organization (IMO) states that all ships globally consume 300 million tons of fuel annually (IMO, 2014). Consumed fuels generate huge amount of emissions, which are nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur oxides (SOx), carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and particulate matter (PM). According to Third IMO GHG Study 2014, annual shipboard NOx emission on 2012 was 19.002 million tons, SOx emission was 10.240 million tons, which are 15% and 13% of global NOx and SOx emissions, respectively, and CO, CO 2 and PM emissions were 936 thousand tons, 949 million tons and 1.402 million tons on 2012, respective to emission type (IMO, 2014). These anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions which is on the global and regional scales impact on human health, climate and ecosystems. Virtually 70% of ship emissions are estimated to occur within 400km of land (Endresen et al., 2003), ships have the potential to contribute significantly to air quality degradation in coastal areas. All these emissions threat people’s health, life quality and environment. For that reason ships emissions have to be analyzed carefully. The goal of the this study is to review existing studies dealing with the impact of shipping emissions on air quality of Turkish Maritime Transport Fleet and analyzing its impacts to environment at global degree within the next 40 years (up to 2050). Using MARKAL (an acronym for MARKet ALlocation) Maritime Transportation model, various steps as designing of ‘‘Reference Energy System (RES)’’ of the model, data processing and prepare of scenario are followed. Review of emission analysis models Several studies have been conducted at this area. Corbett et al. (2000) presented an inventory of emissions from marine vessels engaged in waterborne commerce (i.e., cargo transport) on the U.S. navigable waters. Eyring et al. (2005) presented an emission inventory for international shipping for the past five decades to be used in global modeling studies with detailed tropospheric chemistry. He estimated a fuel consumption of 280 million metric tons (Mt) for the year 2001 and 64.5 Mt in 1950. This corresponds to 187 (5.4) Tg CO 2 (NOx) in 1950, and 813 (21.4) Tg CO 2 (NOx) in 2001. 132 DOI: 10.21279/1454-864X-17-I1-023 © 2017. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 4.0 License.