Climate change effects on the marine characteristics of the Aegean and Ionian Seas Christos Makris 1 & Panagiota Galiatsatou 2 & Konstantia Tolika 3 & Christina Anagnostopoulou 3 & Katerina Kombiadou 1 & Panayotis Prinos 2 & Kondylia Velikou 3 & Zacharias Kapelonis 4 & Elina Tragou 5 & Yannis Androulidakis 1 & Gerasimos Athanassoulis 4 & Christos Vagenas 3 & Ioannis Tegoulias 3 & Vassilis Baltikas 1 & Yannis Krestenitis 1 & Theodoros Gerostathis 6 & Kostantinos Belibassakis 4 & Eugen Rusu 7 Received: 15 February 2016 /Accepted: 4 October 2016 # Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2016 Abstract This paper addresses the effects of estimated climate change on the sea-surface dynamics of the Aegean and Ionian Seas (AIS). The main aim is the identification of climate change impacts on the severity and frequency of extreme storm surges and waves in areas of the AIS prone to flooding. An attempt is made to define design levels for future research on coastal protection in Greece. Extreme value analysis is implemented through a nonstationary generalized extreme value distribution function, incorporating time harmonics in its parameters, by means of statistically defined criteria. A 50-year time span anal- ysis is adopted and changes of means and extremes are deter- mined. A Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) is implemented Responsible Editor: Sandro Carniel * Christos Makris cmakris@civil.auth.gr Panagiota Galiatsatou pgaliats@civil.auth.gr Konstantia Tolika diatol@geo.auth.gr Christina Anagnostopoulou chanag@geo.auth.gr Katerina Kombiadou kobiadou@civil.auth.gr Panayotis Prinos prinosp@civil.auth.gr Kondylia Velikou kvelikou@geo.auth.gr Zacharias Kapelonis mail@zgk.gr Elina Tragou tragou@marine.aegean.gr Yannis Androulidakis iandroul@civil.auth.gr Gerasimos Athanassoulis mathan@central.ntua.gr Christos Vagenas christos.vagenas@met.fu-berlin.de Ioannis Tegoulias tegoulia@auth.gr Vassilis Baltikas vmpaltik@civil.auth.gr Yannis Krestenitis ynkrest@civil.auth.gr Theodoros Gerostathis tgero@teiath.gr Kostantinos Belibassakis kbel@fluid.mech.ntua.gr Eugen Rusu erusu@ugal.ro 1 Laboratory of Maritime Engineering, Division of Hydraulics and Environmental Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, GR-54124 Thessaloniki, Greece 2 Laboratory of Hydraulics, Division of Hydraulics and Environmental Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, GR-54124 Thessaloniki, Greece 3 Department of Meteorology and Climatology, School of Geology, Faculty of Sciences, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, GR-54124 Thessaloniki, Greece Ocean Dynamics DOI 10.1007/s10236-016-1008-1