Radioprotection, Suppl. 1, vol. 40 (2005) S291-S297 © EDP Sciences, 2005 DOI: 10.1051/radiopro:2005s1-044 A case study in the Chernobyl zone Part I: Predicting radionuclide transfer to wildlife N.A. Beresford 1 , S.M. Wright 1 , C.L. Barnett 1 , M.D. Wood 2 , S. Gaschak 3 , A. Arkhipov 3 , T.G. Sazykina 4 and R. Avila 5 1 Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster LA1 4AP, UK, e-mail: nab@ceh.ac.uk 2 Jones Building, School of Biological Sciences, University of Liverpool L69 3GS, UK 3 International Radioecology Laboratory, ICC, Post Box 151, Slavutych, 07100 Kiev District, Ukraine 4 SPA “TYPHOON”, 82 Lenin Av., Obnisk, Kaluga Region 249038, Russia 5 Facilia AB, 16751 Bromma, Sweden Abstract. A number of frameworks have been proposed to assess the protection of wildlife from ionising radiations. In this paper we compare the predictions of transfer parameters recommended by one of these frameworks (FASSET) with observed whole-body 90 Sr and 137 Cs activity concentrations in a range of mammal and invertebrate species sampled within the Chernobyl exclusion zone. Predicted activity concentrations are generally within the observed ranges and mean predictions for reference organisms are similar to, or circa one order of magnitude higher than, the observed means. However, some predictions are more than one order of magnitude lower than observed values. No data were available for animals to test predictions for the other radionuclides released by the Chernobyl accident. In a separate paper the outputs of this assessment will be used to estimate doses to reference organisms and compare these to observed radiation induced effects reported within the Chernobyl zone. 1. INTRODUCTION In recent years, national and international programmes have proposed frameworks and methodologies to assess the protection of wildlife from ionising radiations [e.g. 1,2,3,4]. Whilst some of these are now being used by national authorities [5], there has to date been little attempt to rigorously test their predictions against available data. In part this is because of the lack of sites where radiation induced effects can be observed. One suitable site is the Chernobyl exclusion zone for which considerable amounts of data are available for a wide range of biota across a gradient of exposure rates. In this paper we apply the methodology presented by Brown et al. [6], which forms part of the FASSET environmental impact assessment framework [4], to estimate the whole-body radionuclide concentrations of wild animals within the Chernobyl exclusion zone and compare these to available data. A separate paper takes this work further to estimate doses and the likely subsequent effects [7]. 2. THE FASSET FRAMEWORK The FASSET framework presents look-up tables of concentration ratios (CR) for radionuclides of 19 elements to enable the prediction of the activity concentrations in biota from soil activity concentrations (nominally 0-10 cm soil layer) [6]. Values of CR were estimated from empirical data or, where these were lacking, by model estimation. Biota are represented by a range of reference Article published by EDP Sciences and available at http://www.edpsciences.org/radiopro or http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/radiopro:2005s1-044