Bayesian network meta-analysis to evaluate interferon-free treatments in naive patients with genotype 1 hepatitis C virus infection Sabrina Trippoli, Valeria Fadda, Dario Maratea and Andrea Messori, HTA Unit, ESTAV Toscana Centro, Regional Health Service, Firenze, Italy Correspondence to Andrea Messori, PharmD, HTA Unit, Area Vasta Centro Toscana, Regional Health System, Via Guimaraes 9-11, 59100 Prato, Italy Tel: + 39 338 951 3583; fax: + 39 0574 701319; e-mails: andrea.messori.it@gmail.com and andrea.messori@estav-centro.toscana.it Received 27 March 2015 Accepted 10 April 2015 Interferon-free antiviral treatments represent the newest therapeutic option for previously untreated patients with genotype 1 hepatitis C [1,2]. In Europe, six anti- viral combinations have received regulatory approval, SOF/LED-12 weeks SOF/LED-8 weeks SOF/DAC-12 weeks ARIOD-12 weeks ARIODR-12 weeks 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 SVR12 (%) ARIODR-12 weeks 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1 2 3 5 Rank ARIOD-12 weeks 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1 2 3 4 5 Rank SOF/DAC-12 weeks 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 1 2 3 4 5 Rank SOF/LED-8 weeks 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1 2 3 4 5 Rank Rank SOF/LED-12 weeks 1 2 3 4 5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 (a) (b) 4 Fig. 1. (a) Estimates of SVR12 achievement, medians with 95% CrIs, calculated by the Bayesian model. The numerical values of these estimates are as follows: SOF/LED-12 weeks, 93.17 (95% CrI: 98.35–99.76); SOF/LED-8 weeks, 77.84 (95% CrI: 93.64–98.71); SOF/DAC, 87.62 (95% CrI: 99.56–100); ARIOD, 83.42 (95% CrI: 93.88–97.93); and ARIODR, 93.15 (95% CrI: 97.27–99.12). (b) Histograms of rankings estimated by the probabilistic analysis. Overall, the rankings in effectiveness for the five treatments were as follows: (i) SOF/DAC-12 weeks; (ii) SOF/LED-12 weeks; (iii) ARIODR-12 weeks; and (iv) ARIOD-12 weeks and SOF/LED-8 weeks (with the same median rank). CrIs, credible intervals; ARIOD-12 weeks, ABT-450/ritonavir/ombitasvir/dasabuvir for 12 weeks; ARIODR-12 weeks, ARIOD + ribavirin for 12 weeks; SOF/DAC-12 weeks, sofosbuvir + daclatasvir for 12 weeks; SOF/LED-8 weeks, sofosbuvir + ledipasvir for 8 weeks; SOF/LED-12 weeks, sofosbuvir + ledipasvir for 12 weeks. European Journal of Gastroenterology & Hepatology 2015, 00:000–000 ’ Letter to the Editor 0954-691X Copyright © 2015 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved. 1